Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
36
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
42
Momentum
13
Fundamental
84
Macro
24
Liquidity
58
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 42.0 | 30% |
| Momentum | 13.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 83.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 57.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 27.08 |
| Stop Loss | 21.94 (19.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 32.22 (+19.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 37.36 (+38.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.57 (9.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 5.14 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 92.2 | +1.69 | |
| Momentum | 11.9 | -1.53 | |
| Quality | 63.5 | +0.54 | |
| Composite | 55.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
4.47
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.7 | 28.0 | -80% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.5 | 6.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
147.74
vs
Market Price
27.08
Upside
+445.6%
| Margin of Safety | +81.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 18,846,133,401 |
| Terminal Value PV | 76,721,212,053 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 95,567,345,454 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,452,942,518 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
20.96%
Full Kelly
10.48%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 36/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
30.95
RSI(14)
-2.387
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
42
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-8.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (21d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -18.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 30.95 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -2.387 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 37.64 / 32.63 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.51x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 51.40 |
| Bollinger Upper | 41.05 |
| SMA(200) | 32.63 |
| SMA(50) | 37.64 |
| SMA(20) | 33.98 |
| Current Price | 27.08 |
| Bollinger Lower | 26.92 |
| 52-Week Low | 19.48 |
| ATR(14) | 2.57 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
50%
Selling Climax
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.93x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Stopping Volume | 2.15x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.51x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 31.10 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 35.79 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 33.45 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 35.79 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 33.45 – 35.79 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 27.08 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 41.92 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 26.92 – 41.05 | KC: 30.05 – 37.92
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 33.13
Anchor: 2026-03-23 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-18.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SMCI
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 17.52B |
| P/E (TTM) | 5.71 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.50 |
| EPS | 4.74 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0% |
| Profit Margin | 6.8% |
| ROE | 32.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 57.47 |
| Current Ratio | 3.02 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.18 |
Trading Data
27.08
Open
27.08
Day High
27.08
Day Low
62.12M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)