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Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI · Technology · · USD
39.59 USD
+0.00 (4.54%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 22:08 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

76
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 80
Momentum 92
Fundamental (0%) 82
Macro 64
Liquidity 49
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 40%
Trend & RS 79.8 20%
Momentum 91.8 20%
Fundamental 82.3 0%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 48.9 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 39.59
Stop Loss 34.87 (11.9%)
Target 1 (1:1) 44.31 (+11.9%)
Target 2 (2:1) 49.03 (+23.8%)
ATR(14) 2.36 (6.0%)
Risk per Share 4.72
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 77.1 +1.08
Momentum 91.8 +1.67
Quality 63.6 +0.54
Composite 77.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.34 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 12.1 28.0 -57% below
P/B Ratio 2.4 6.0 Below

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
101.61
vs
Market Price
39.59
Upside
+156.7%
Margin of Safety +61.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)13,163,911,795
Terminal Value PV53,589,309,106
Total Enterprise Value66,753,220,901

Assumptions

Base FCF1,713,365,721
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
49.49%
Full Kelly
24.74%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
62.66
RSI(14)
1.7204
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

49
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (-9.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector INLINE (Technology)
RS New High No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance +1.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 62.66 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.7204 BEARISH
Ma Cross 31.71 / 31.37 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.98x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High58.78
Bollinger Upper41.4
SMA(200)31.37
SMA(50)31.71
SMA(20)37.03
Current Price39.59
Bollinger Lower32.67
52-Week Low19.48
ATR(14)2.36

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence
50%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 No Supply 0.42x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-01 No Supply 0.49x Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-09-02 Normal 0.61x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.63x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.98x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 38.27 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 34.76 Base line
Senkou A 36.52 Leading span A
Senkou B 32.84 Leading span B
Cloud 32.84 – 36.52 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 39.59 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 28.40 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 32.67 – 41.4  |  KC: 33.27 – 40.8

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 31.95 Anchor: 2026-03-23 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +23.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/SMCI

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap26.01B
P/E (TTM)12.14
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.37
EPS3.26

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth93.2%
Profit Margin5.7%
ROE21.5%
Debt/Equity63.95
Current Ratio3.87
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta2.00

Trading Data

39.59
Open
39.59
Day High
39.59
Day Low
53.63M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

Palantir Surged 51% in August. The Rest of Tech Wasn't Even Close
GuruFocus.com · 2026-09-07
Super Micro Has Gained 35% in 2026. What Would It Take to Get SMCI Stock Up to $50?
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-07
Here's How Much You'd Have If You Invested $1000 in Super Micro Computer a Decade Ago
Zacks · 2026-09-07
SMCI Stock Is at a Crossroads. The Next Move Could Be Huge
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-06
DELL Stock Hits 52-Week High: Does it Have More Room to Run?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
Super Micro Surges 7% as Semiconductors Lead a Flat Tape; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Falls 3%, Dell Edges Higher
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-04
Update: Equities Fall Intraday as Jobs Report Lifts Rate Hike Bets
MT Newswires · 2026-09-04
Supermicro's Revenue Boom Just Ran Into a Profit Test
GuruFocus.com · 2026-09-04

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —