Simon Property Group, Inc.

SPG · Real Estate · · USD

209.44 USD

0.00 (-0.98%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 62

Momentum 54

Fundamental (0%) 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 43

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	61.7	20%
Momentum	53.9	20%
Fundamental	55.6	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	42.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	209.44
Stop Loss	202.70 (3.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	216.18 (+3.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	222.92 (+6.4%)

ATR(14)	3.37 (1.6%)
Risk per Share	6.74
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	39.1	-0.43
Momentum	53.9	+0.15
Quality	66.7	+0.67
Composite	53.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.8	18.0	-18% below
P/B Ratio	15.4	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	4.2%	4.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Real Estate median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

358.70

Market Price

209.44

Upside

+71.3%

Margin of Safety	+41.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	28,614,103,707
Terminal Value PV	107,556,540,352
Total Enterprise Value	136,170,644,059

Assumptions

Base FCF	4,306,448,708
Growth Rate (5yr)	19.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

35.99%

Full Kelly

18.0%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 55/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

32.03

RSI(14)

-3.3807

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-4.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Real Estate)
RS New High	No (27d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	32.03	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.3807	BEARISH
Ma Cross	222.57 / 199.38	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.72x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	238.50
Bollinger Upper	225.92
SMA(200)	199.38
SMA(50)	222.57
SMA(20)	217.35
Current Price	209.44
Bollinger Lower	208.78
52-Week Low	172.19
ATR(14)	3.37

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.16x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Spring	0.72x	Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	215.31	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	220.58	Base line
Senkou A	217.94	Leading span A
Senkou B	223.89	Leading span B
Cloud	217.94 – 223.89	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	209.44	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	229.37	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH