Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD · Basic Materials · · USD

242.06 USD

0.00 (-1.61%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 18:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 76

Momentum 58

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	76.5	30%
Momentum	58.2	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	50.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	242.06
Stop Loss	224.14 (7.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	259.98 (+7.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	277.90 (+14.8%)

ATR(14)	8.96 (3.7%)
Risk per Share	17.92
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	64.3	+0.57
Momentum	58.2	+0.33
Quality	55.8	+0.23
Composite	59.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	22.0	18.0	+22% above
P/B Ratio	3.7	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	88.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

343.16

Market Price

242.06

Upside

+41.8%

Margin of Safety	+29.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	9,699,369,353
Terminal Value PV	39,485,413,648
Total Enterprise Value	49,184,783,001

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,262,433,783
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.57%

Full Kelly

24.28%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 75/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.52

RSI(14)

-2.2893

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-14.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (58d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-9.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.52	NEUTRAL
Macd	-2.2893	BULLISH
Ma Cross	241.94 / 209.65	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.99x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	288.74
Bollinger Upper	271.96
SMA(200)	209.65
SMA(50)	241.94
SMA(20)	243.38
Current Price	242.06
Bollinger Lower	214.8
52-Week Low	129.41
ATR(14)	8.96

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION A Confidence

50%

Selling Climax

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.56x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.99x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	239.78	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	245.69	Base line
Senkou A	242.74	Leading span A
Senkou B	244.86	Leading span B
Cloud	242.74 – 244.86	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	242.06	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	251.26	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH