Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD · Basic Materials · · USD

237.08 USD

+0.00 (1.84%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 12:50 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 92

Fundamental 78

Macro 72

Liquidity 51

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	97.6	30%
Momentum	92.4	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	71.8	20%
Liquidity	51.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	237.08
Stop Loss	224.10 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	250.06 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	263.04 (+10.9%)

ATR(14)	6.49 (2.7%)
Risk per Share	12.98
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	59.8	+0.39
Momentum	92.4	+1.70
Quality	53.4	+0.13
Composite	68.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	25.4	18.0	+41% above
P/B Ratio	3.8	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	89.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

232.64

Market Price

237.08

Upside

-1.9%

Margin of Safety	-1.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	7,083,877,393
Terminal Value PV	26,465,338,759
Total Enterprise Value	33,549,216,152

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,077,557,939
Growth Rate (5yr)	19.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

53.04%

Full Kelly

26.52%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 83/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.0%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

68.79

RSI(14)

11.2892

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+8.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+17.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	68.79	NEUTRAL
Macd	11.2892	BEARISH
Ma Cross	197.92 / 166.99	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.99x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	243.73
Bollinger Upper	249.98
SMA(200)	166.99
SMA(50)	197.92
SMA(20)	226.11
Current Price	237.08
Bollinger Lower	202.24
52-Week Low	119.89
ATR(14)	6.49

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-07	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	0.99x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	234.81	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	213.69	Base line
Senkou A	224.25	Leading span A
Senkou B	202.69	Leading span B
Cloud	202.69 – 224.25	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	237.08	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	187.56	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH