Steel Dynamics, Inc.
STLD · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
48
/ 100
Technical
40
Trend & RS
60
Momentum
41
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
68
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 40.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 60.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 40.6 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 67.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 221.90 |
| Stop Loss | 201.22 (9.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 242.58 (+9.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 263.26 (+18.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 10.34 (4.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 20.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 73.1 | +0.92 | |
| Momentum | 36.9 | -0.52 | |
| Quality | 58.3 | +0.33 | |
| Composite | 56.1 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.4 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 3.2 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 96.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
422.02
vs
Market Price
221.90
Upside
+90.2%
| Margin of Safety | +47.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,835,770,700 |
| Terminal Value PV | 48,182,545,159 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 60,018,315,859 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,540,499,824 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
30.87%
Full Kelly
15.44%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 48/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
34.71
RSI(14)
0.6389
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
75
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-10.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -13.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 34.71 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.6389 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 238.37 / 224.32 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.74x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 288.74 |
| Bollinger Upper | 256.96 |
| SMA(200) | 224.32 |
| SMA(50) | 238.37 |
| SMA(20) | 243.08 |
| Current Price | 221.90 |
| Bollinger Lower | 229.2 |
| 52-Week Low | 150.22 |
| ATR(14) | 10.34 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.9x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.74x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 240.25 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 239.17 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 239.71 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 239.17 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 239.17 – 239.71 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 221.90 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 226.17 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
7 bars
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 229.2 – 256.96 | KC: 228.08 – 258.08
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | MACD | 6 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 210.51
Anchor: 2025-11-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+5.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/STLD
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 31.56B |
| P/E (TTM) | 16.39 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.21 |
| EPS | 13.54 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 34.8% |
| Profit Margin | 8.8% |
| ROE | 20.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 45.12 |
| Current Ratio | 3.15 |
| Dividend Yield | 96.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.44 |
Trading Data
221.90
Open
221.90
Day High
221.90
Day Low
1.85M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)