Molson Coors Beverage Company
TAP · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
52
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
52
Momentum
59
Fundamental
56
Macro
24
Liquidity
51
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 52.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 59.0 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 50.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 42.23 |
| Stop Loss | 39.51 (6.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 44.95 (+6.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 47.67 (+12.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.36 (3.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.72 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 93.0 | +1.72 | |
| Momentum | 59.0 | +0.36 | |
| Quality | 27.4 | -0.90 | |
| Composite | 59.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.2 | 18.0 | -49% below |
| P/B Ratio | 0.9 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
49.23
vs
Market Price
42.23
Upside
+16.6%
| Margin of Safety | +14.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,750,963,752 |
| Terminal Value PV | 6,428,644,470 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 9,179,608,222 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 686,150,483 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
34.16%
Full Kelly
17.08%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 52/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
60.12
RSI(14)
1.0027
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
30
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+3.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -10.7% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 60.12 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.0027 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 38.97 / 41.59 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.49x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 54.82 |
| Bollinger Upper | 43.37 |
| SMA(200) | 41.59 |
| SMA(50) | 38.97 |
| SMA(20) | 40.07 |
| Current Price | 42.23 |
| Bollinger Lower | 36.77 |
| 52-Week Low | 35.52 |
| ATR(14) | 1.36 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
55%
Buying Climax
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 2.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.49x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 41.56 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 40.12 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 40.84 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 39.89 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 39.89 – 40.84 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 42.23 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 37.11 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 36.77 – 43.37 | KC: 38.11 – 42.03
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 39.22
Anchor: 2026-09-28 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/TAP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 7.87B |
| P/E (TTM) | 9.18 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 0.94 |
| EPS | 4.60 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -1.6% |
| Profit Margin | 8.1% |
| ROE | 8.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 56.97 |
| Current Ratio | 0.86 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
42.23
Open
42.23
Day High
42.23
Day Low
4.80M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)