Molson Coors Beverage Company
TAP · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
44
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
42
Momentum
46
Fundamental
46
Macro
24
Liquidity
51
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 42.1 | 10% |
| Momentum | 45.7 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 45.8 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 50.9 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 39.60 |
| Stop Loss | 36.69 (7.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 42.52 (+7.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 45.45 (+14.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.46 (3.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 2.92 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 90.1 | +1.60 | |
| Momentum | 45.7 | -0.17 | |
| Quality | 27.4 | -0.90 | |
| Composite | 54.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.80
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.2 | 18.0 | -49% below |
| P/B Ratio | 0.9 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
49.23
vs
Market Price
42.23
Upside
+16.6%
| Margin of Safety | +14.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,568,957,731 |
| Terminal Value PV | 6,003,320,069 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 8,572,277,800 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 640,754,203 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
27.57%
Full Kelly
13.78%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
48.58
RSI(14)
0.8144
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
30
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-0.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -13.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 48.58 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.8144 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 38.93 / 41.55 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.04x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 54.82 |
| Bollinger Upper | 43.21 |
| SMA(200) | 41.55 |
| SMA(50) | 38.93 |
| SMA(20) | 40.19 |
| Current Price | 42.23 |
| Bollinger Lower | 37.17 |
| 52-Week Low | 35.52 |
| ATR(14) | 1.46 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
100%
Upthrust (potential)
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 4.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 2.28x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.24x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.61x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.04x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 41.56 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 40.12 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 40.84 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 39.89 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 39.89 – 40.84 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 39.60 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 36.86 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 37.17 – 43.21 | KC: 38.1 – 42.29
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 39.22
Anchor: 2026-09-28 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+1.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/TAP
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 7.87B |
| P/E (TTM) | 9.18 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 0.94 |
| EPS | 4.60 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -1.6% |
| Profit Margin | 8.1% |
| ROE | 8.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 56.97 |
| Current Ratio | 0.86 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | N/A |
Trading Data
42.23
Open
42.23
Day High
42.23
Day Low
4.80M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)