Tesla, Inc.
TSLA · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)
32
/ 100
Technical
20
Trend & RS
41
Momentum
39
Fundamental (0%)
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
90
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 20.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 41.0 | 20% |
| Momentum | 39.2 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 0% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 90.3 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 343.69 |
| Stop Loss | 310.81 (9.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 376.57 (+9.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 409.45 (+19.1%) |
| ATR(14) | 16.44 (4.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 32.88 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0.0 | -2.00 | |
| Momentum | 35.6 | -0.58 | |
| Quality | 29.8 | -0.81 | |
| Composite | 21.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✗
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 377.7 | 18.0 | +1998% above |
| P/B Ratio | 15.2 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
11.23
vs
Market Price
343.69
Upside
-96.7%
| Margin of Safety | -2959.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,842,248,186 |
| Terminal Value PV | 32,561,955,953 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 44,404,204,139 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,877,607,831 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
17.75%
Full Kelly
8.88%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 32/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 6.9%, avg loss 4.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
35.81
RSI(14)
3.794
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
52
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+9.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (3d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +3.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 35.81 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 3.794 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 372.07 / 384.32 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.98x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 498.83 |
| Bollinger Upper | 417.4 |
| SMA(200) | 384.32 |
| SMA(50) | 372.07 |
| SMA(20) | 381.65 |
| Current Price | 343.69 |
| Bollinger Lower | 345.89 |
| 52-Week Low | 297.38 |
| ATR(14) | 16.44 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.67x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.2x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.98x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 376.19 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 376.19 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 376.19 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 376.19 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 376.19 – 376.19 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 343.69 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 354.11 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 345.89 – 417.4 | KC: 357.9 – 405.4
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 20 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 361.21
Anchor: 2026-07-29 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-4.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/TSLA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 1358.52B |
| P/E (TTM) | 377.68 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 15.22 |
| EPS | 0.91 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.2% |
| Profit Margin | 3.1% |
| ROE | 3.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 18.30 |
| Current Ratio | 1.74 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.74 |
Trading Data
343.69
Open
343.69
Day High
343.69
Day Low
78.37M
Volume (2.1x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)