The Trade Desk, Inc.
TTD · Communication Services · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)
25
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
23
Momentum
26
Fundamental (0%)
83
Macro
24
Liquidity
36
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 23.2 | 20% |
| Momentum | 25.5 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.6 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 36.2 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 12.81 |
| Stop Loss | 11.61 (9.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 14.01 (+9.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 15.21 (+18.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.60 (4.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 1.20 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 79.7 | +1.19 | |
| Momentum | 25.5 | -0.98 | |
| Quality | 44.4 | -0.23 | |
| Composite | 49.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
9.43
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.4 | 18.0 | -14% below |
| P/B Ratio | 2.3 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 1.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Communication Services median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
9.27
vs
Market Price
12.81
Upside
-27.6%
| Margin of Safety | -38.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,176,248,795 |
| Terminal Value PV | 2,806,758,603 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 3,983,007,398 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 285,311,819 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
11.25%
Full Kelly
5.63%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 25/100. Estimated win rate 48%, avg win 6.5%, avg loss 4.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
50.1
RSI(14)
-0.0207
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
8
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-2.2% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Communication Servic) |
| RS New High | No (37d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -2.6% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 50.1 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.0207 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 13.07 / 19.62 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.04x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 46.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 13.41 |
| SMA(200) | 19.62 |
| SMA(50) | 13.07 |
| SMA(20) | 12.62 |
| Current Price | 12.81 |
| Bollinger Lower | 11.83 |
| 52-Week Low | 11.62 |
| ATR(14) | 0.6 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.15x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 12.96 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 12.65 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 12.80 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 13.46 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 12.80 – 13.46 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 12.81 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 12.10 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 2/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE ON
3 bars
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 11.83 – 13.41 | KC: 11.72 – 13.52
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 12.57
Anchor: 2026-10-07 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+1.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 6.06B |
| P/E (TTM) | 15.43 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.34 |
| EPS | 0.83 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.0% |
| Profit Margin | 13.6% |
| ROE | 15.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 16.86 |
| Current Ratio | 1.72 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.04 |
Trading Data
12.81
Open
12.81
Day High
12.81
Day Low
14.79M
Volume (0.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)