Texas Instruments Incorporated

TXN · Technology · · USD

258.44 USD

+0.00 (1.82%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 67

Momentum 59

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	67.3	30%
Momentum	59.4	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	49.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	258.44
Stop Loss	240.84 (6.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	276.04 (+6.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	293.64 (+13.6%)

ATR(14)	8.80 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	17.60
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	12.0	-1.52
Momentum	59.4	+0.38
Quality	90.9	+1.63
Composite	54.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	39.2	28.0	+40% above
P/B Ratio	13.1	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.2%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

189.12

Market Price

258.44

Upside

-26.8%

Margin of Safety	-36.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	34,914,222,075
Terminal Value PV	137,795,117,200
Total Enterprise Value	172,709,339,275

Assumptions

Base FCF	4,814,641,727
Growth Rate (5yr)	22.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.88%

Full Kelly

20.44%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 59%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.64

RSI(14)

-7.0087

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-13.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (53d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.64	NEUTRAL
Macd	-7.0087	BEARISH
Ma Cross	279.32 / 237.48	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.79x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	334.03
Bollinger Upper	285.97
SMA(200)	237.48
SMA(50)	279.32
SMA(20)	266.56
Current Price	258.44
Bollinger Lower	247.14
52-Week Low	152.73
ATR(14)	8.8

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.34x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	257.81	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	268.88	Base line
Senkou A	263.34	Leading span A
Senkou B	281.55	Leading span B
Cloud	263.34 – 281.55	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	258.44	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	275.74	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH