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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UNH · Healthcare · · USD
397.14 USD
0.00 (-0.95%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

66
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 56
Momentum 68
Fundamental 83
Macro 64
Liquidity 59
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 55.6 30%
Momentum 67.9 15%
Fundamental 82.8 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 59.2 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 397.14
Stop Loss 379.84 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 414.44 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 431.74 (+8.7%)
ATR(14) 8.65 (2.2%)
Risk per Share 17.30
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 58.0 +0.32
Momentum 67.9 +0.72
Quality 27.5 -0.90
Composite 51.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 4.95 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 25.5 22.0 +16% above
P/B Ratio 3.6 4.0 Inline
Dividend Yield 2.3% 1.5% Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
192.21
vs
Market Price
397.14
Upside
-51.6%
Margin of Safety -106.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)46,010,981,981
Terminal Value PV126,513,778,908
Total Enterprise Value172,524,760,889

Assumptions

Base FCF11,180,441,414
Growth Rate (5yr)2.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
43.29%
Full Kelly
21.64%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
46.82
RSI(14)
-3.4747
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

51
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-4.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance -7.8% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 46.82 NEUTRAL
Macd -3.4747 BULLISH
Ma Cross 411.74 / 349.14 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.36x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High461.62
Bollinger Upper408.72
SMA(200)349.14
SMA(50)411.74
SMA(20)396.91
Current Price397.14
Bollinger Lower385.11
52-Week Low255.97
ATR(14)8.65

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 1.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.4x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.91x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.8x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.34x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.36x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 396.98 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 403.32 Base line
Senkou A 400.15 Leading span A
Senkou B 422.73 Leading span B
Cloud 400.15 – 422.73 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 397.14 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 414.40 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 385.11 – 408.72  |  KC: 385.32 – 408.5

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 377.12 Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +5.3%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/UNH

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap356.47B
P/E (TTM)25.51
Forward P/EN/A
P/B3.65
EPS15.57

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth0.4%
Profit Margin3.1%
ROE14.2%
Debt/Equity69.21
Current Ratio0.78
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.62

Trading Data

397.14
Open
397.14
Day High
397.14
Day Low
4.83M
Volume (0.9x avg)

Recent News (8)

Insurers Have Already Told Wall Street Which Advantage Plans Die on December 31. Members Are the Last to Know, and the Letter Isn’t Due Until October 2.
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-05
2 Reasons to Like UNH and 1 to Stay Skeptical
StockStory · 2026-09-04
UnitedHealth Falls as 30% of Approval Barriers Vanish
GuruFocus.com · 2026-09-04
UnitedHealth Stock Rises 39% in 6 Months: Should Investors Still Buy?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
UnitedHealth’s Earnings Beat And Cost Controls Could Be A Game Changer For UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-04
UnitedHealth Is Trouncing the Market in 2026. Is the Stock Still a Buy?
Motley Fool · 2026-09-04
3 Sector Stocks to Gain From as Oil, Rates and Jobs Shape September
Zacks · 2026-09-03
UnitedHealth Stock Recovered Before Its Margins Did
Trefis · 2026-09-03

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —