UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH · Healthcare · · USDFahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)
67
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
98
Momentum
53
Fundamental (0%)
44
Macro
22
Liquidity
69
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 98.4 | 20% |
| Momentum | 53.3 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 0% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 69.0 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 395.72 |
| Stop Loss | 370.48 (6.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 420.96 (+6.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 446.20 (+12.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 12.62 (3.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 25.24 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 64.1 | +0.56 | |
| Momentum | 53.3 | +0.13 | |
| Quality | 28.5 | -0.86 | |
| Composite | 48.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✗
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.6 | 22.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 3.6 | 4.0 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% | 1.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
216.28
vs
Market Price
395.72
Upside
-45.3%
| Margin of Safety | -83.0% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 51,682,750,419 |
| Terminal Value PV | 142,109,117,824 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 193,791,868,243 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 12,558,653,136 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
44.03%
Full Kelly
22.02%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
47.31
RSI(14)
4.6441
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
95
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+2.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare) |
| RS New High | No (10d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -15.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 47.31 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 4.6441 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 390.14 / 361.02 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.11x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 461.62 |
| Bollinger Upper | 430.61 |
| SMA(200) | 361.02 |
| SMA(50) | 390.14 |
| SMA(20) | 404.08 |
| Current Price | 395.72 |
| Bollinger Lower | 377.55 |
| 52-Week Low | 255.97 |
| ATR(14) | 12.62 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION A
Confidence
75%
Selling Climax
Acc: 3.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.69x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.66x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 406.68 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 394.58 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 400.63 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 394.58 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 394.58 – 400.63 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 395.72 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 365.20 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 377.55 – 430.61 | KC: 383.45 – 424.71
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 378.67
Anchor: 2026-03-27 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+4.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 354.57B |
| P/E (TTM) | 22.59 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.61 |
| EPS | 17.52 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.4% |
| Profit Margin | 3.5% |
| ROE | 15.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 70.43 |
| Current Ratio | 0.74 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.52 |
Trading Data
395.72
Open
395.72
Day High
395.72
Day Low
6.86M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)