Vulcan Materials Company

VMC · Basic Materials · · USD

296.29 USD

+0.00 (2.62%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:10 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 59

Momentum 52

Fundamental 89

Macro 65

Liquidity 36

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	59.4	10%
Momentum	51.8	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	35.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	296.60
Stop Loss	277.70 (6.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	315.50 (+6.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	334.40 (+12.7%)

ATR(14)	9.45 (3.2%)
Risk per Share	18.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	44.3	-0.23
Momentum	51.8	+0.07
Quality	51.4	+0.06
Composite	49.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.91 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	35.1	18.0	+95% above
P/B Ratio	4.5	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	72.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

131.03

Market Price

296.29

Upside

-55.8%

Margin of Safety	-126.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,186,389,173
Terminal Value PV	12,815,651,959
Total Enterprise Value	17,002,041,132

Assumptions

Base FCF	875,066,944
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

43.29%

Full Kelly

21.64%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.0

RSI(14)

2.7127

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-9.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.0	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.7127	BEARISH
Ma Cross	286.61 / 290.94	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.2x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	331.09
Bollinger Upper	315.47
SMA(200)	290.94
SMA(50)	286.61
SMA(20)	298.35
Current Price	296.29
Bollinger Lower	281.23
52-Week Low	252.35
ATR(14)	9.45

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.64x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	297.75	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	295.35	Base line
Senkou A	296.55	Leading span A
Senkou B	286.54	Leading span B
Cloud	286.54 – 296.55	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	296.60	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	285.30	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH