Vulcan Materials Company

VMC · Basic Materials · · USD

262.63 USD

+0.00 (0.92%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 24

Momentum 43

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 51

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	10%
Trend & RS	23.9	10%
Momentum	42.7	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	50.8	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	262.63
Stop Loss	247.75 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	277.51 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	292.39 (+11.3%)

ATR(14)	7.44 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	14.88
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	51.1	+0.04
Momentum	42.7	-0.29
Quality	43.3	-0.27
Composite	45.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.60 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	31.0	18.0	+72% above
P/B Ratio	4.0	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	80.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

106.98

Market Price

262.63

Upside

-59.3%

Margin of Safety	-145.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	3,668,784,191
Terminal Value PV	10,193,349,960
Total Enterprise Value	13,862,134,151

Assumptions

Base FCF	879,062,165
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.5%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

37.91%

Full Kelly

18.95%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.82

RSI(14)

-5.2237

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-11.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-5.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.82	NEUTRAL
Macd	-5.2237	BEARISH
Ma Cross	282.08 / 287.32	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.27x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	331.09
Bollinger Upper	288.79
SMA(200)	287.32
SMA(50)	282.08
SMA(20)	273.62
Current Price	262.63
Bollinger Lower	258.46
52-Week Low	252.35
ATR(14)	7.44

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.43x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.18x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.27x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	269.18	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	273.07	Base line
Senkou A	271.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	288.87	Leading span B
Cloud	271.12 – 288.87	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	262.63	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	268.07	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH