Vulcan Materials Company

VMC · Basic Materials · · USD

288.98 USD

+0.00 (0.09%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 49

Momentum 48

Fundamental 78

Macro 71

Liquidity 36

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	10%
Trend & RS	48.6	10%
Momentum	48.3	5%
Fundamental	77.8	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	35.7	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	290.31
Stop Loss	272.33 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	308.29 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	326.27 (+12.4%)

ATR(14)	8.99 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	17.98
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	47.1	-0.12
Momentum	48.3	-0.07
Quality	51.4	+0.06
Composite	48.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	34.0	18.0	+89% above
P/B Ratio	4.4	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	72.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

131.96

Market Price

288.98

Upside

-54.3%

Margin of Safety	-119.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,216,185,896
Terminal Value PV	12,906,867,667
Total Enterprise Value	17,123,053,563

Assumptions

Base FCF	881,295,254
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

38.58%

Full Kelly

19.29%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

47.81

RSI(14)

2.2109

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-11.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+0.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	47.81	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.2109	BEARISH
Ma Cross	286.48 / 290.9	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.04x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	331.09
Bollinger Upper	315.51
SMA(200)	290.9
SMA(50)	286.48
SMA(20)	298.03
Current Price	288.98
Bollinger Lower	280.55
52-Week Low	252.35
ATR(14)	8.99

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.04x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	297.75	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	295.35	Base line
Senkou A	296.55	Leading span A
Senkou B	286.54	Leading span B
Cloud	286.54 – 296.55	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	290.31	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	285.30	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL