Vulcan Materials Company

VMC · Basic Materials · · USD

282.70 USD

0.00 (-0.36%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:50 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 42

Momentum 41

Fundamental 89

Macro 65

Liquidity 45

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	41.6	30%
Momentum	40.9	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	65.1	20%
Liquidity	45.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	282.70
Stop Loss	267.10 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	298.30 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	313.90 (+11.0%)

ATR(14)	7.80 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	15.60
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	46.6	-0.14
Momentum	40.9	-0.37
Quality	51.4	+0.06
Composite	46.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.70 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	33.5	18.0	+86% above
P/B Ratio	4.3	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	74.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

131.03

Market Price

282.70

Upside

-53.6%

Margin of Safety	-115.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	4,186,389,173
Terminal Value PV	12,815,651,959
Total Enterprise Value	17,002,041,132

Assumptions

Base FCF	875,066,944
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.4%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

30.87%

Full Kelly

15.44%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 48/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.9%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

43.97

RSI(14)

0.7474

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-20.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Basic Materials)
RS New High	No (59d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-13.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	43.97	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.7474	BEARISH
Ma Cross	282.15 / 291.81	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.98x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	331.09
Bollinger Upper	301.02
SMA(200)	291.81
SMA(50)	282.15
SMA(20)	291.71
Current Price	282.70
Bollinger Lower	282.4
52-Week Low	252.35
ATR(14)	7.8

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	293.06	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	290.99	Base line
Senkou A	292.02	Leading span A
Senkou B	281.77	Leading span B
Cloud	281.77 – 292.02	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	282.70	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	281.63	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL