Vulcan Materials Company
VMC · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
61
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
58
Momentum
62
Fundamental (0%)
78
Macro
24
Liquidity
62
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 57.8 | 20% |
| Momentum | 61.7 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 62.4 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 281.03 |
| Stop Loss | 263.53 (6.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 298.53 (+6.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 316.03 (+12.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 8.75 (3.1%) |
| Risk per Share | 17.50 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 45.9 | -0.16 | |
| Momentum | 61.7 | +0.47 | |
| Quality | 39.9 | -0.40 | |
| Composite | 49.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
5.58
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.8 | 18.0 | +88% above |
| P/B Ratio | 4.3 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 73.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
104.31
vs
Market Price
285.51
Upside
-63.5%
| Margin of Safety | -173.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 3,570,477,054 |
| Terminal Value PV | 9,817,537,581 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 13,388,014,635 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 867,608,293 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
39.84%
Full Kelly
19.92%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
59.76
RSI(14)
9.303
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
44
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+3.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | No (2d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 59.76 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 9.303 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 257.0 / 279.17 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.01x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 331.09 |
| Bollinger Upper | 299.07 |
| SMA(200) | 279.17 |
| SMA(50) | 257.0 |
| SMA(20) | 267.17 |
| Current Price | 285.51 |
| Bollinger Lower | 235.27 |
| 52-Week Low | 237.03 |
| ATR(14) | 8.75 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION A
Confidence
75%
Buying Climax
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.14x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.88x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.36x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.33x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Supply | 0.01x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 281.55 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 270.75 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 276.14 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 270.07 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 270.07 – 276.14 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 281.03 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 243.06 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 235.27 – 299.07 | KC: 254.64 – 279.7
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 262.50
Anchor: 2026-10-01 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+7.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/VMC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 36.64B |
| P/E (TTM) | 33.79 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.35 |
| EPS | 8.45 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -4.7% |
| Profit Margin | 13.8% |
| ROE | 12.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 63.13 |
| Current Ratio | 1.43 |
| Dividend Yield | 73.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.99 |
Trading Data
285.51
Open
285.51
Day High
285.51
Day Low
1.73M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)