Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

VRTX · Healthcare · · USD

496.50 USD

0.00 (-0.39%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:08 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 71

Fundamental 78

Macro 78

Liquidity 66

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	20%
Trend & RS	93.9	30%
Momentum	71.4	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	65.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	496.50
Stop Loss	465.36 (6.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	527.64 (+6.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	558.78 (+12.5%)

ATR(14)	15.57 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	31.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	41.1	-0.36
Momentum	71.4	+0.86
Quality	77.2	+1.09
Composite	63.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	29.5	22.0	+34% above
P/B Ratio	6.5	4.0	Above

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

266.01

Market Price

496.50

Upside

-46.4%

Margin of Safety	-86.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	16,530,081,961
Terminal Value PV	50,985,515,638
Total Enterprise Value	67,515,597,599

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,417,236,154
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

54.55%

Full Kelly

27.27%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 86/100. Estimated win rate 66%, avg win 10.1%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

58.9

RSI(14)

17.8774

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+0.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (4d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	58.9	NEUTRAL
Macd	17.8774	BULLISH
Ma Cross	453.27 / 446.37	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.03x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	533.67
Bollinger Upper	537.34
SMA(200)	446.37
SMA(50)	453.27
SMA(20)	479.55
Current Price	496.50
Bollinger Lower	421.76
52-Week Low	362.50
ATR(14)	15.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	507.89	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	476.84	Base line
Senkou A	492.37	Leading span A
Senkou B	472.97	Leading span B
Cloud	472.97 – 492.37	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	496.50	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	425.09	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH