Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

VRTX · Healthcare · · USD

488.56 USD

0.00 (-1.60%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 93

Momentum 67

Fundamental 89

Macro 71

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	92.7	30%
Momentum	67.1	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	71.2	20%
Liquidity	40.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	487.76
Stop Loss	457.10 (6.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	518.42 (+6.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	549.08 (+12.6%)

ATR(14)	15.33 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	30.66
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	35.0	-0.60
Momentum	67.1	+0.68
Quality	77.2	+1.09
Composite	59.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 39.56 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	29.0	22.0	+32% above
P/B Ratio	6.4	4.0	Above

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

266.01

Market Price

488.56

Upside

-45.6%

Margin of Safety	-83.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	16,530,081,865
Terminal Value PV	50,985,515,341
Total Enterprise Value	67,515,597,206

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,417,236,134
Growth Rate (5yr)	7.8%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

50.39%

Full Kelly

25.2%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

54.26

RSI(14)

15.8071

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (-1.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (5d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+5.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	54.26	NEUTRAL
Macd	15.8071	BEARISH
Ma Cross	454.42 / 446.89	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.02x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	533.67
Bollinger Upper	536.2
SMA(200)	446.89
SMA(50)	454.42
SMA(20)	482.16
Current Price	488.56
Bollinger Lower	428.11
52-Week Low	362.50
ATR(14)	15.33

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	507.89	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	476.84	Base line
Senkou A	492.37	Leading span A
Senkou B	472.97	Leading span B
Cloud	472.97 – 492.37	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	487.76	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	428.34	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL