Xcel Energy Inc.
XEL · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)
57
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
68
Momentum
64
Fundamental
40
Macro
22
Liquidity
70
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 67.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 64.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 40.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 69.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 80.37 |
| Stop Loss | 77.25 (3.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 83.49 (+3.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 86.61 (+7.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 1.56 (1.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 3.12 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 69.7 | +0.79 | |
| Momentum | 58.2 | +0.33 | |
| Quality | 34.8 | -0.61 | |
| Composite | 54.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
1.25
—
Distress Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.7 | 16.0 | +17% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.0 | 1.8 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% | 3.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
64.48
vs
Market Price
80.37
Upside
-19.8%
| Margin of Safety | -24.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 10,308,008,045 |
| Terminal Value PV | 31,078,597,304 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 41,386,605,349 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,202,913,106 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 6.6% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
37.43%
Full Kelly
18.72%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 57/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
66.86
RSI(14)
1.6403
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
69
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+8.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Utilities) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -0.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 66.86 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.6403 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 74.74 / 77.42 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.52x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 84.23 |
| Bollinger Upper | 81.49 |
| SMA(200) | 77.42 |
| SMA(50) | 74.74 |
| SMA(20) | 77.3 |
| Current Price | 80.37 |
| Bollinger Lower | 73.1 |
| 52-Week Low | 68.72 |
| ATR(14) | 1.56 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
43%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 1.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.11x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 2.43x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.81x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.52x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 79.37 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 75.63 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 77.50 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 75.24 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 75.24 – 77.50 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 80.37 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 70.55 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 73.1 – 81.49 | KC: 74.99 – 79.6
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 75.77
Anchor: 2026-09-25 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 51.59B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.73 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.00 |
| EPS | 4.29 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.6% |
| Profit Margin | 17.9% |
| ROE | 11.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 167.65 |
| Current Ratio | 0.69 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.34 |
Trading Data
80.37
Open
80.37
Day High
80.37
Day Low
10.18M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)