Xcel Energy Inc.

XEL · Utilities · · USD

75.72 USD

0.00 (-0.81%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 41

Momentum 44

Fundamental (0%) 44

Macro 64

Liquidity 45

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	40%
Trend & RS	41.2	20%
Momentum	43.7	20%
Fundamental	44.4	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	45.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	75.72
Stop Loss	73.00 (3.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	78.44 (+3.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	81.16 (+7.2%)

ATR(14)	1.36 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	2.72
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	74.8	+0.99
Momentum	43.7	-0.25
Quality	32.0	-0.72
Composite	50.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.8	16.0	+30% above
P/B Ratio	2.0	1.8	Inline
Dividend Yield	3.1%	3.5%	Below avg

Comparing against Utilities median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

45.06

Market Price

75.72

Upside

-40.5%

Margin of Safety	-68.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	7,506,046,100
Terminal Value PV	20,638,947,827
Total Enterprise Value	28,144,993,927

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,823,932,137
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

23.85%

Full Kelly

11.92%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 39/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.3%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

39.37

RSI(14)

-0.8012

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-8.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Utilities)
RS New High	No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-1.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	39.37	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.8012	BEARISH
Ma Cross	78.75 / 77.91	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.77x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	84.23
Bollinger Upper	80.15
SMA(200)	77.91
SMA(50)	78.75
SMA(20)	77.45
Current Price	75.72
Bollinger Lower	74.76
52-Week Low	71.29
ATR(14)	1.36

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.43x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.62x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.22x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	76.31	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	77.76	Base line
Senkou A	77.03	Leading span A
Senkou B	78.79	Leading span B
Cloud	77.03 – 78.79	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	75.72	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	78.20	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH