ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

XOM · Energy · · USD

159.47 USD

0.00 (-1.69%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 97

Momentum 57

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 65

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	96.8	10%
Momentum	56.9	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	64.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	159.47
Stop Loss	152.69 (4.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	166.25 (+4.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	173.03 (+8.5%)

ATR(14)	3.39 (2.1%)
Risk per Share	6.78
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	71.6	+0.86
Momentum	56.9	+0.28
Quality	33.8	-0.65
Composite	54.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 12.05 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	20.5	10.0	+105% above
P/B Ratio	2.5	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.5%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

242.18

Market Price

159.47

Upside

+51.9%

Margin of Safety	+34.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	196,376,584,812
Terminal Value PV	799,434,519,833
Total Enterprise Value	995,811,104,645

Assumptions

Base FCF	25,559,644,743
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.2%

Full Kelly

24.6%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

51.61

RSI(14)

2.1924

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+2.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	No (11d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-12.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	51.61	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.1924	BEARISH
Ma Cross	152.29 / 143.07	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.15x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	176.41
Bollinger Upper	167.52
SMA(200)	143.07
SMA(50)	152.29
SMA(20)	161.17
Current Price	159.47
Bollinger Lower	154.82
52-Week Low	108.35
ATR(14)	3.39

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.8x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	160.49	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	158.39	Base line
Senkou A	159.44	Leading span A
Senkou B	151.36	Leading span B
Cloud	151.36 – 159.44	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	159.47	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	154.44	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH