ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation
XOM · Energy · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
62
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
80
Momentum
54
Fundamental
67
Macro
24
Liquidity
72
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 80.3 | 10% |
| Momentum | 54.4 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 72.5 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 165.30 |
| Stop Loss | 155.60 (5.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 175.00 (+5.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 184.70 (+11.7%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.85 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 9.70 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 75.9 | +1.04 | |
| Momentum | 54.4 | +0.18 | |
| Quality | 37.3 | -0.51 | |
| Composite | 55.9 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.0 | 10.0 | +70% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.5 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Energy median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
302.96
vs
Market Price
165.30
Upside
+83.3%
| Margin of Safety | +45.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 243,707,311,020 |
| Terminal Value PV | 992,114,397,713 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 1,235,821,708,733 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 31,720,035,752 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
40.42%
Full Kelly
20.21%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 62/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
38.48
RSI(14)
1.8443
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
75
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+13.7% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Energy) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +3.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 38.48 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 1.8443 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 168.64 / 154.28 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 1.4x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 188.50 |
| Bollinger Upper | 188.6 |
| SMA(200) | 154.28 |
| SMA(50) | 168.64 |
| SMA(20) | 177.51 |
| Current Price | 165.30 |
| Bollinger Lower | 166.42 |
| 52-Week Low | 114.19 |
| ATR(14) | 4.85 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 3.5 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.63x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.23x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.86x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.91x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 176.82 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 174.66 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 175.74 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 171.91 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 171.91 – 175.74 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 165.30 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 163.82 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 166.42 – 188.6 | KC: 170.52 – 184.51
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 5 | |
| Regular Bearish | MACD | 9 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 146.36
Anchor: 2025-11-06 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+12.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/XOM
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 674.30B |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.01 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.54 |
| EPS | 9.72 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 32.6% |
| Profit Margin | 10.5% |
| ROE | 15.5% |
| Debt/Equity | 12.57 |
| Current Ratio | 1.19 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.14 |
Trading Data
165.30
Open
165.30
Day High
165.30
Day Low
18.74M
Volume (1.4x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)