Saudi Ceramic Company
2040.SR · Industrials · · SARFahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)
43
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
22
Momentum
40
Fundamental
56
Macro
57
Liquidity
29
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 21.9 | 10% |
| Momentum | 40.2 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 57.1 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 28.7 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 26.00 |
| Stop Loss | 25.06 (3.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 26.94 (+3.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 27.88 (+7.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 0.47 (1.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 0.94 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 83.4 | +1.33 | |
| Momentum | 40.2 | -0.39 | |
| Quality | 37.6 | -0.50 | |
| Composite | 53.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.3 | 18.0 | -21% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.7 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
19.48
vs
Market Price
26.00
Upside
-25.1%
| Margin of Safety | -33.5% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 581,881,968 |
| Terminal Value PV | 1,359,782,477 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 1,941,664,445 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 145,134,080 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.8%
Recommended Size
27.33%
Full Kelly
13.67%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 43/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
36.97
RSI(14)
-0.3788
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
17
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs TASI | ↓ FALLING (-8.4% vs TASI 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (44d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -6.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs TASI
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 36.97 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -0.3788 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 27.62 / 28.08 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.76x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 34.32 |
| Bollinger Upper | 27.69 |
| SMA(200) | 28.08 |
| SMA(50) | 27.62 |
| SMA(20) | 26.63 |
| Current Price | 26.00 |
| Bollinger Lower | 25.58 |
| 52-Week Low | 24.10 |
| ATR(14) | 0.47 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Normal | 0.71x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-06 | Normal | 0.92x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-07 | No Supply | 0.56x | Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure |
| 2026-07-08 | Normal | 0.83x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-07-09 | Normal | 0.76x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 26.40 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 26.70 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 26.55 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 28.48 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 26.55 – 28.48 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 26.00 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 27.38 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 25.58 – 27.69 | KC: 25.89 – 27.37
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 23 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 25 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 28.14
Anchor: 2026-03-01 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-7.6%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/2040.SR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 2.59B |
| P/E (TTM) | 14.29 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.70 |
| EPS | 1.82 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.4% |
| Profit Margin | 12.2% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 59.83 |
| Current Ratio | 1.34 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.13 |
Trading Data
26.00
Open
26.00
Day High
26.00
Day Low
133.4K
Volume (0.5x avg)
Insider Activity
Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)