Saudi Ceramic Company

2040.SR · Industrials · · SAR

26.00 SAR

0.00 (-0.38%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 25

Trend & RS 22

Momentum 40

Fundamental 56

Macro 57

Liquidity 29

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	25.0	20%
Trend & RS	21.9	30%
Momentum	40.2	15%
Fundamental	55.6	10%
Macro	57.1	20%
Liquidity	28.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	26.00
Stop Loss	25.06 (3.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	26.94 (+3.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	27.88 (+7.2%)

ATR(14)	0.47 (1.8%)
Risk per Share	0.94
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	83.4	+1.33
Momentum	40.2	-0.39
Quality	37.6	-0.50
Composite	53.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.3	18.0	-21% below
P/B Ratio	1.7	3.0	Below
Dividend Yield	3.9%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

19.48

Market Price

26.00

Upside

-25.1%

Margin of Safety	-33.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	581,881,968
Terminal Value PV	1,359,782,477
Total Enterprise Value	1,941,664,445

Assumptions

Base FCF	145,134,080
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	10.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

21.39%

Full Kelly

10.69%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 36/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

36.97

RSI(14)

-0.3788

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs TASI	↓ FALLING (-8.4% vs TASI 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (44d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / TASI (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs TASI 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	36.97	NEUTRAL
Macd	-0.3788	BULLISH
Ma Cross	27.62 / 28.08	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.76x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	34.32
Bollinger Upper	27.69
SMA(200)	28.08
SMA(50)	27.62
SMA(20)	26.63
Current Price	26.00
Bollinger Lower	25.58
52-Week Low	24.10
ATR(14)	0.47

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-05	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	No Supply	0.56x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure
2026-07-08	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	26.40	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	26.70	Base line
Senkou A	26.55	Leading span A
Senkou B	28.48	Leading span B
Cloud	26.55 – 28.48	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	26.00	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	27.38	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH

BB: 25.58 – 27.69 | KC: 25.89 – 27.37

Divergences (last 60 bars)

Type	Indicator	Bars Ago	Strength
Hidden Bearish	RSI	23
Regular Bullish	RSI	25

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 28.14 Anchor: 2026-03-01 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -7.6%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/2040.SR

Valuation

Metric	Value
Market Cap	2.59B
P/E (TTM)	14.29
Forward P/E	N/A
P/B	1.70
EPS	1.82

Financial Health

Metric	Value
Revenue Growth	-0.4%
Profit Margin	12.2%
ROE	12.2%
Debt/Equity	59.83
Current Ratio	1.34
Dividend Yield	3.9%
Payout Ratio	N/A
Beta	0.13

Trading Data

26.00

Open

26.00

Day High

26.00

Day Low

133.4K

Volume (0.5x avg)

Insider Activity

Insider transaction data is not available for Saudi-listed stocks.

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)