Apple Inc.

AAPL · Technology · · USD

314.16 USD

0.00 (-0.65%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:05 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 92

Momentum 78

Fundamental 83

Macro 71

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	92.3	10%
Momentum	78.3	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	50.0	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	313.79
Stop Loss	297.82 (5.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	329.75 (+5.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	345.70 (+10.2%)

ATR(14)	7.98 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	15.96
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	9.9	-1.61
Momentum	78.3	+1.13
Quality	63.5	+0.54
Composite	50.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 35.07 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	38.1	28.0	+36% above
P/B Ratio	43.3	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	34.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

186.36

Market Price

314.16

Upside

-40.7%

Margin of Safety	-68.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	595,997,938,485
Terminal Value PV	2,141,205,392,036
Total Enterprise Value	2,737,203,330,521

Assumptions

Base FCF	96,936,549,600
Growth Rate (5yr)	16.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

49.88%

Full Kelly

24.94%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

61.43

RSI(14)

4.5021

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+9.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 1d since high
Sector Outperformance	+4.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	61.43	NEUTRAL
Macd	4.5021	BULLISH
Ma Cross	297.7 / 272.09	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.08x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	317.40
Bollinger Upper	320.89
SMA(200)	272.09
SMA(50)	297.7
SMA(20)	298.03
Current Price	314.16
Bollinger Lower	275.16
52-Week Low	201.50
ATR(14)	7.98

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Demand	0.08x	Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	298.19	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	295.57	Base line
Senkou A	296.88	Leading span A
Senkou B	291.11	Leading span B
Cloud	291.11 – 296.88	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	313.79	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	310.26	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH