Apple Inc.

AAPL · Technology · · USD

292.68 USD

0.00 (-0.20%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:47 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 84

Momentum 70

Fundamental 83

Macro 65

Liquidity 64

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	10%
Trend & RS	83.5	10%
Momentum	70.4	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	65.1	15%
Liquidity	63.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	292.68
Stop Loss	279.74 (4.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	305.62 (+4.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	318.56 (+8.8%)

ATR(14)	6.47 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	12.94
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	14.4	-1.43
Momentum	70.4	+0.82
Quality	63.5	+0.54
Composite	49.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 32.84 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	35.5	28.0	+27% above
P/B Ratio	40.3	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	37.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

186.36

Market Price

292.68

Upside

-36.3%

Margin of Safety	-57.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	595,997,938,485
Terminal Value PV	2,141,205,392,036
Total Enterprise Value	2,737,203,330,521

Assumptions

Base FCF	96,936,549,600
Growth Rate (5yr)	16.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

49.09%

Full Kelly

24.54%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 76/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

72.36

RSI(14)

7.8035

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-0.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 61d since high
Sector Outperformance	-34.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	72.36	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	7.8035	BULLISH
Ma Cross	263.14 / 256.92	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.84x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	294.76
Bollinger Upper	294.03
SMA(200)	256.92
SMA(50)	263.14
SMA(20)	274.65
Current Price	292.68
Bollinger Lower	255.26
52-Week Low	193.46
ATR(14)	6.47

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	280.64	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	269.98	Base line
Senkou A	275.31	Leading span A
Senkou B	269.89	Leading span B
Cloud	269.89 – 275.31	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	292.68	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	258.62	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH