Amazon.com, Inc.

AMZN · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

270.13 USD

+0.00 (1.62%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 12:48 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 96

Momentum 85

Fundamental (0%) 83

Macro 72

Liquidity 61

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	40%
Trend & RS	96.0	20%
Momentum	85.1	20%
Fundamental	83.3	0%
Macro	71.8	15%
Liquidity	61.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	270.13
Stop Loss	256.37 (5.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	283.89 (+5.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	297.65 (+10.2%)

ATR(14)	6.88 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	13.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	37.9	-0.48
Momentum	85.1	+1.40
Quality	44.1	-0.24
Composite	55.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 9.29 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	32.4	18.0	+80% above
P/B Ratio	6.6	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

188.62

Market Price

270.13

Upside

-30.2%

Margin of Safety	-43.2%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	441,803,599,331
Terminal Value PV	1,587,240,807,434
Total Enterprise Value	2,029,044,406,765

Assumptions

Base FCF	71,857,491,032
Growth Rate (5yr)	16.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

51.57%

Full Kelly

25.78%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.29

RSI(14)

10.4436

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+24.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (7d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+52.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.29	NEUTRAL
Macd	10.4436	BEARISH
Ma Cross	234.8 / 229.07	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.85x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	278.56
Bollinger Upper	280.62
SMA(200)	229.07
SMA(50)	234.8
SMA(20)	262.97
Current Price	270.13
Bollinger Lower	245.32
52-Week Low	196.00
ATR(14)	6.88

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-07	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	0.81x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	0.78x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	270.60	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	249.09	Base line
Senkou A	259.84	Leading span A
Senkou B	238.85	Leading span B
Cloud	238.85 – 259.84	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	270.13	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	221.25	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH