American Water Works Company, Inc.
AWK · Utilities · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
66
/ 100
Technical
80
Trend & RS
83
Momentum
88
Fundamental
44
Macro
22
Liquidity
64
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 80.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 83.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 87.7 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 44.4 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 63.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 152.42 |
| Stop Loss | 145.74 (4.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 159.10 (+4.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 165.78 (+8.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.34 (2.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 65.5 | +0.62 | |
| Momentum | 79.7 | +1.19 | |
| Quality | 34.1 | -0.63 | |
| Composite | 59.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
4
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.4 | 16.0 | +65% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.5 | 1.8 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% | 3.5% | Below avg |
Comparing against Utilities median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
78.12
vs
Market Price
152.42
Upside
-48.7%
| Margin of Safety | -95.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 4,018,466,314 |
| Terminal Value PV | 11,535,353,738 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 15,553,820,052 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 920,659,948 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 4.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
43.41%
Full Kelly
21.71%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 66/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
76.15
RSI(14)
4.2639
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
82
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+18.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Utilities) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +9.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 76.15 | OVERBOUGHT |
| Macd | 4.2639 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 136.46 / 131.72 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.55x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 153.69 |
| Bollinger Upper | 153.21 |
| SMA(200) | 131.72 |
| SMA(50) | 136.46 |
| SMA(20) | 139.17 |
| Current Price | 152.42 |
| Bollinger Lower | 125.12 |
| 52-Week Low | 120.57 |
| ATR(14) | 3.34 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.54x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.55x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 146.36 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 140.01 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 143.19 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 140.01 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 140.01 – 143.19 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 152.42 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 127.86 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH
BB: 125.12 – 153.21 | KC: 134.15 – 144.18
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 132.23
Anchor: 2026-02-09 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+15.3%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 30.35B |
| P/E (TTM) | 26.37 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.54 |
| EPS | 5.78 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.1% |
| Profit Margin | 21.3% |
| ROE | 9.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 137.68 |
| Current Ratio | 0.39 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.55 |
Trading Data
152.42
Open
152.42
Day High
152.42
Day Low
3.15M
Volume (1.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)