Booking Holdings Inc.
BKNG · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
42
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
44
Momentum
51
Fundamental
33
Macro
22
Liquidity
72
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 44.1 | 30% |
| Momentum | 50.9 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 33.3 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 72.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 168.72 |
| Stop Loss | 155.38 (7.9%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 182.06 (+7.9%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 195.40 (+15.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 6.67 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 13.34 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 70.4 | +0.82 | |
| Momentum | 46.3 | -0.15 | |
| Quality | 44.3 | -0.23 | |
| Composite | 53.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
3
/9 —
Weak
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.3 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | -12.1 | 2.5 | Inline |
| Dividend Yield | 100.0% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
113.82
vs
Market Price
168.72
Upside
-32.5%
| Margin of Safety | -48.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 22,574,698,929 |
| Terminal Value PV | 62,072,365,030 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 84,647,063,959 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 5,485,540,363 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
26.62%
Full Kelly
13.31%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 42/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.5%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
58.46
RSI(14)
-1.6748
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
35
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-16.1% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (52d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -22.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.46 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.6748 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 167.24 / 175.37 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.56x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 220.81 |
| Bollinger Upper | 171.48 |
| SMA(200) | 175.37 |
| SMA(50) | 167.24 |
| SMA(20) | 158.35 |
| Current Price | 168.72 |
| Bollinger Lower | 145.21 |
| 52-Week Low | 146.28 |
| ATR(14) | 6.67 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.08x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.25x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.88x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.56x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 160.29 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 160.29 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 160.29 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 181.54 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 160.29 – 181.54 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 168.72 | Inside Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 160.28 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 145.21 – 171.48 | KC: 149.15 – 167.54
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 16 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 22 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 157.90
Anchor: 2026-10-28 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+6.8%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/BKNG
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 125.48B |
| P/E (TTM) | 18.30 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | -12.09 |
| EPS | 9.22 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -1.3% |
| Profit Margin | 25.5% |
| ROE | N/A |
| Debt/Equity | N/A |
| Current Ratio | 1.11 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.15 |
Trading Data
168.72
Open
168.72
Day High
168.72
Day Low
12.09M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)