Cisco Systems, Inc.

CSCO · Technology · · USD

98.72 USD

+0.00 (2.23%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 11:47 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 67

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 100

Fundamental 83

Macro 65

Liquidity 71

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	66.7	20%
Trend & RS	93.5	30%
Momentum	100.0	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	65.1	20%
Liquidity	70.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	98.72
Stop Loss	93.92 (4.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	103.52 (+4.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	108.32 (+9.7%)

ATR(14)	2.40 (2.4%)
Risk per Share	4.80
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	23.2	-1.07
Momentum	94.0	+1.76
Quality	46.0	-0.16
Composite	54.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 8.23 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	35.5	28.0	+27% above
P/B Ratio	8.2	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.7%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

47.55

Market Price

98.72

Upside

-51.8%

Margin of Safety	-107.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	44,776,310,819
Terminal Value PV	143,031,362,427
Total Enterprise Value	187,807,673,246

Assumptions

Base FCF	8,784,562,125
Growth Rate (5yr)	9.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

52.23%

Full Kelly

26.11%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 81/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.9%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

75.38

RSI(14)

3.6131

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+7.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	-27.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	75.38	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	3.6131	BULLISH
Ma Cross	83.41 / 75.19	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	1.72x	HIGH

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	98.83
Bollinger Upper	98.13
SMA(200)	75.19
SMA(50)	83.41
SMA(20)	89.73
Current Price	98.72
Bollinger Lower	81.33
52-Week Low	60.85
ATR(14)	2.4

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.46x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.33x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	92.84	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	88.92	Base line
Senkou A	90.88	Leading span A
Senkou B	86.81	Leading span B
Cloud	86.81 – 90.88	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	98.72	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	80.44	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH