Cisco Systems, Inc.

CSCO · Technology · · USD

109.20 USD

+0.00 (0.54%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:32 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 66

Momentum 60

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	66.1	20%
Momentum	59.6	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	52.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	109.20
Stop Loss	103.56 (5.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	114.84 (+5.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	120.48 (+10.3%)

ATR(14)	2.82 (2.6%)
Risk per Share	5.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	26.6	-0.93
Momentum	59.6	+0.38
Quality	49.6	-0.02
Composite	45.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	32.8	28.0	+17% above
P/B Ratio	8.6	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.5%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

78.24

Market Price

109.20

Upside

-28.4%

Margin of Safety	-39.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	66,332,966,831
Terminal Value PV	242,119,681,959
Total Enterprise Value	308,452,648,790

Assumptions

Base FCF	10,503,050,824
Growth Rate (5yr)	17.6%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

37.7%

Full Kelly

18.85%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 57/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.0

RSI(14)

-1.7485

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-14.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Technology)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-3.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.0	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.7485	BEARISH
Ma Cross	114.24 / 94.24	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.63x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	130.37
Bollinger Upper	121.39
SMA(200)	94.24
SMA(50)	114.24
SMA(20)	112.55
Current Price	109.20
Bollinger Lower	103.71
52-Week Low	66.13
ATR(14)	2.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.58x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.73x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	110.28	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	116.16	Base line
Senkou A	113.22	Leading span A
Senkou B	116.12	Leading span B
Cloud	113.22 – 116.12	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	109.20	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	115.99	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH