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Deckers Outdoor Corporation

DECK · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
85.81 USD
+0.00 (1.55%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)

34
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 25
Momentum 18
Fundamental 89
Macro 64
Liquidity 49
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 20%
Trend & RS 25.1 30%
Momentum 18.4 15%
Fundamental 88.9 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 49.3 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 85.81
Stop Loss 80.31 (6.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 91.31 (+6.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 96.81 (+12.8%)
ATR(14) 2.75 (3.2%)
Risk per Share 5.50
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 71.4 +0.86
Momentum 18.4 -1.26
Quality 73.6 +0.95
Composite 54.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score 18.87 — Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 12.2 18.0 -32% below
P/B Ratio 5.1 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
101.72
vs
Market Price
85.81
Upside
+18.5%
Margin of Safety +15.6%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)3,495,347,974
Terminal Value PV10,356,607,547
Total Enterprise Value13,851,955,521

Assumptions

Base FCF765,886,764
Growth Rate (5yr)5.7%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
20.08%
Full Kelly
10.04%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 34/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.1%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
37.71
RSI(14)
-3.6478
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

25
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-25.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (59d since high)
Sector Outperformance -25.2% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 37.71 NEUTRAL
Macd -3.6478 BEARISH
Ma Cross 97.19 / 102.55 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.01x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High122.29
Bollinger Upper96.7
SMA(200)102.55
SMA(50)97.19
SMA(20)89.54
Current Price85.81
Bollinger Lower82.37
52-Week Low78.91
ATR(14)2.75

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.17x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 1.07x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.92x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.01x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 86.52 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 92.46 Base line
Senkou A 89.49 Leading span A
Senkou B 97.02 Leading span B
Cloud 89.49 – 97.02 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 85.81 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 96.88 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH FADING
BB: 82.37 – 96.7  |  KC: 85.52 – 93.55

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bearish MACD 10

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 100.68 Anchor: 2025-11-05 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -14.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/DECK

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap11.69B
P/E (TTM)12.21
Forward P/EN/A
P/B5.10
EPS7.03

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth5.7%
Profit Margin18.4%
ROE42.6%
Debt/Equity20.52
Current Ratio2.75
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.15

Trading Data

85.81
Open
85.81
Day High
85.81
Day Low
2.65M
Volume (1.1x avg)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —