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Deckers Outdoor Corporation

DECK · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
83.40 USD
0.00 (-2.81%)
● Updated 2026-09-08 21:03 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

19
/ 100
Technical 0
Trend & RS 24
Momentum 16
Fundamental (0%) 78
Macro 65
Liquidity 35
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 0.0 40%
Trend & RS 23.5 20%
Momentum 15.9 20%
Fundamental 77.8 0%
Macro 64.7 15%
Liquidity 35.1 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 83.17
Stop Loss 77.61 (6.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 88.73 (+6.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 94.29 (+13.4%)
ATR(14) 2.78 (3.3%)
Risk per Share 5.56
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 68.9 +0.76
Momentum 15.9 -1.36
Quality 73.6 +0.95
Composite 52.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 11.9 18.0 -34% below
P/B Ratio 5.0 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value
101.72
vs
Market Price
83.40
Upside
+22.0%
Margin of Safety +18.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)3,495,348,006
Terminal Value PV10,356,607,639
Total Enterprise Value13,851,955,645

Assumptions

Base FCF765,886,771
Growth Rate (5yr)5.7%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

2.33%
Recommended Size
5.17%
Full Kelly
2.59%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 19/100. Estimated win rate 46%, avg win 6.2%, avg loss 4.6%. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
33.71
RSI(14)
-3.7155
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

21
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-28.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance -21.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 33.71 NEUTRAL
Macd -3.7155 BEARISH
Ma Cross 96.76 / 102.55 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.47x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High122.29
Bollinger Upper95.5
SMA(200)102.55
SMA(50)96.76
SMA(20)88.82
Current Price83.40
Bollinger Lower82.15
52-Week Low78.91
ATR(14)2.78

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-09-01 Normal 1.09x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 1.11x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.93x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.02x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08 Normal 0.47x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 86.47 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 92.42 Base line
Senkou A 89.45 Leading span A
Senkou B 96.97 Leading span B
Cloud 89.45 – 96.97 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 83.17 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 99.50 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 82.15 – 95.5  |  KC: 84.81 – 92.84

Divergences (last 60 bars)

No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 100.64 Anchor: 2025-11-05 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -17.4%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/DECK

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap11.36B
P/E (TTM)11.86
Forward P/EN/A
P/B4.95
EPS7.03

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth5.7%
Profit Margin18.4%
ROE42.6%
Debt/Equity20.52
Current Ratio2.75
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.15

Trading Data

83.40
Open
83.40
Day High
83.40
Day Low
1.19M
Volume (0.5x avg)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —