Deckers Outdoor Corporation
DECK · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
47
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
37
Momentum
42
Fundamental
67
Macro
54
Liquidity
40
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 36.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 41.9 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 54.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 39.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 86.71 |
| Stop Loss | 80.39 (7.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 93.03 (+7.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 99.35 (+14.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.16 (3.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.32 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 69.1 | +0.77 | |
| Momentum | 41.9 | -0.33 | |
| Quality | 73.8 | +0.95 | |
| Composite | 61.6 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✗
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.5 | 18.0 | -36% below |
| P/B Ratio | 5.0 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
99.45
vs
Market Price
86.71
Upside
+14.7%
| Margin of Safety | +12.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 3,460,415,368 |
| Terminal Value PV | 9,813,702,016 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 13,274,117,384 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 806,219,130 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 3.5% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
30.19%
Full Kelly
15.1%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
2
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
56.79
RSI(14)
0.9112
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
17
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-6.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (62d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -5.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 56.79 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.9112 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 82.34 / 98.9 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.63x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 122.29 |
| Bollinger Upper | 89.7 |
| SMA(200) | 98.9 |
| SMA(50) | 82.34 |
| SMA(20) | 84.45 |
| Current Price | 86.71 |
| Bollinger Lower | 79.19 |
| 52-Week Low | 77.20 |
| ATR(14) | 3.16 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.83x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 0.83x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | Normal | 0.63x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 85.25 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 84.91 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 85.08 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 84.45 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 84.45 – 85.08 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 86.71 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 79.12 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 79.19 – 89.7 | KC: 79.54 – 89.36
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 83.01
Anchor: 2026-09-30 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+4.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/DECK
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 11.57B |
| P/E (TTM) | 11.48 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 4.99 |
| EPS | 7.55 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3.5% |
| Profit Margin | 19.0% |
| ROE | 44.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 23.24 |
| Current Ratio | 2.72 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.11 |
Trading Data
86.71
Open
86.71
Day High
86.71
Day Low
2.21M
Volume (0.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)