Deckers Outdoor Corporation

DECK · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

82.59 USD

0.00 (-3.75%)

● Updated 2026-09-08 22:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG SELL Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 24

Momentum 15

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 63

Liquidity 40

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	40%
Trend & RS	23.5	20%
Momentum	15.0	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	63.4	15%
Liquidity	39.5	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	82.58
Stop Loss	76.92 (6.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	88.24 (+6.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	93.90 (+13.7%)

ATR(14)	2.83 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	5.66
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	72.4	+0.90
Momentum	15.0	-1.40
Quality	73.6	+0.95
Composite	53.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 18.31 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	11.8	18.0	-35% below
P/B Ratio	4.9	2.5	Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

101.72

Market Price

82.59

Upside

+23.2%

Margin of Safety	+18.8%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	3,495,347,974
Terminal Value PV	10,356,607,547
Total Enterprise Value	13,851,955,521

Assumptions

Base FCF	765,886,764
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

2.28%

Recommended Size

5.06%

Full Kelly

2.53%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 19/100. Estimated win rate 46%, avg win 6.2%, avg loss 4.6%. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

32.93

RSI(14)

-3.7625

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-28.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	No (60d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-27.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	32.93	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.7625	BEARISH
Ma Cross	96.75 / 102.55	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.63x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	122.29
Bollinger Upper	95.58
SMA(200)	102.55
SMA(50)	96.75
SMA(20)	88.79
Current Price	82.59
Bollinger Lower	82.01
52-Week Low	78.91
ATR(14)	2.83

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 2.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.92x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08	Normal	0.63x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	86.13	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	92.08	Base line
Senkou A	89.10	Leading span A
Senkou B	96.63	Leading span B
Cloud	89.10 – 96.63	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	82.58	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	99.50	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH