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Dollar General Corporation

DG · Consumer Defensive · · USD
104.63 USD
0.00 (-7.64%)
● Updated 2026-05-12 11:48 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

47
/ 100
Technical 50
Trend & RS 34
Momentum 32
Fundamental 56
Macro 65
Liquidity 66
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 50.0 20%
Trend & RS 34.3 30%
Momentum 31.7 15%
Fundamental 55.6 10%
Macro 65.1 20%
Liquidity 66.2 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 104.63
Stop Loss 96.05 (8.2%)
Target 1 (1:1) 113.21 (+8.2%)
Target 2 (2:1) 121.79 (+16.4%)
ATR(14) 4.29 (4.1%)
Risk per Share 8.58
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 77.0 +1.08
Momentum 28.9 -0.85
Quality 34.4 -0.62
Composite 46.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 15.3 18.0 -15% below
P/B Ratio 2.7 2.5 Inline
Dividend Yield 2.3% 2.0% Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value
99.96
vs
Market Price
104.63
Upside
-4.5%
Margin of Safety -4.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)5,538,467,819
Terminal Value PV16,474,323,564
Total Enterprise Value22,012,791,383

Assumptions

Base FCF1,206,840,211
Growth Rate (5yr)5.9%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
30.19%
Full Kelly
15.1%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

3
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
26.52
RSI(14)
-3.6627
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

23
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-35.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High No (50d since high)
Sector Outperformance -20.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 26.52 OVERSOLD
Macd -3.6627 BEARISH
Ma Cross 124.87 / 120.45 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short BELOW SMA50
Trend Long BELOW SMA200
Bollinger LOWER BAND
Volume 2.25x HIGH

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High158.23
Bollinger Upper128.99
SMA(200)120.45
SMA(50)124.87
SMA(20)118.38
Current Price104.63
Bollinger Lower107.78
52-Week Low86.25
ATR(14)4.29

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-05-05 Normal 0.99x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06 Normal 1.0x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07 Normal 1.1x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08 Normal 1.13x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11 Stopping Volume 2.25x High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume)

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 111.11 Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 115.45 Base line
Senkou A 113.28 Leading span A
Senkou B 130.56 Leading span B
Cloud 113.28 – 130.56 Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud 104.63 Below Cloud
Chikou Span 124.42 Bearish
Alignment Score 0/4 BEARISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BEARISH
BB: 107.78 – 128.99  |  KC: 112.5 – 124.27

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bullish RSI 9
Regular Bullish RSI 22

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 117.72 Anchor: 2025-05-14 (52w Low) BELOW AVWAP -11.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/DG

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap23.04B
P/E (TTM)15.27
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.71
EPS6.85

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth5.9%
Profit Margin3.5%
ROE19.0%
Debt/Equity184.66
Current Ratio1.14
Dividend Yield2.3%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.28

Trading Data

104.63
Open
104.63
Day High
104.63
Day Low
5.58M
Volume (1.7x avg)

Recent News (8)

Paging Dr. Copper — Heard on the Street Monday Recap
The Wall Street Journal · 2026-05-12
Signal: Buy the Dip on Dollar General Stock
Schaeffer's Investment Research · 2026-05-11
Dollar General (DG) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why
Zacks · 2026-05-08
Trade Desk Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y, Stock Down
Zacks · 2026-05-08
Nordstrom Rack expands in Southern California with new stores
LA Times · 2026-05-08
The Bull Case For Dollar General (DG) Could Change Following Retail Media And Private-Label Expansion
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-08
Why more retailers are offering same-day delivery
Supply Chain Dive · 2026-05-07
Elanco Animal Health Incorporated Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Moby · 2026-05-06

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —