Dollar General Corporation
DG · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)
80
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
79
Momentum
90
Fundamental (0%)
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
62
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 79.0 | 20% |
| Momentum | 89.6 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 0% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 61.8 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 138.00 |
| Stop Loss | 127.68 (7.5%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 148.32 (+7.5%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 158.64 (+15.0%) |
| ATR(14) | 5.16 (3.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 10.32 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 71.0 | +0.84 | |
| Momentum | 81.5 | +1.26 | |
| Quality | 35.8 | -0.57 | |
| Composite | 62.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.9 | 18.0 | Inline |
| P/B Ratio | 3.3 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
109.07
vs
Market Price
138.00
Upside
-21.0%
| Margin of Safety | -26.5% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 6,116,509,793 |
| Terminal Value PV | 17,946,343,180 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 24,062,852,973 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,358,999,354 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 5.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
51.62%
Full Kelly
25.81%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
58.49
RSI(14)
2.8151
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
47
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+14.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +0.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 58.49 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.8151 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 127.07 / 124.45 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.56x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 158.23 |
| Bollinger Upper | 141.02 |
| SMA(200) | 124.45 |
| SMA(50) | 127.07 |
| SMA(20) | 131.91 |
| Current Price | 138.00 |
| Bollinger Lower | 122.79 |
| 52-Week Low | 95.11 |
| ATR(14) | 5.16 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.78x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.99x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.72x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.57x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.56x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 134.62 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 130.67 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 132.64 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 130.67 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 130.67 – 132.64 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 138.00 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 118.34 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 122.79 – 141.02 | KC: 124.16 – 139.66
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 123.60
Anchor: 2025-11-07 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+11.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 30.45B |
| P/E (TTM) | 17.92 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.28 |
| EPS | 7.70 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 5.2% |
| Profit Margin | 3.9% |
| ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 169.81 |
| Current Ratio | 1.21 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.19 |
Trading Data
138.00
Open
138.00
Day High
138.00
Day Low
3.56M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)