Dollar General Corporation

DG · Consumer Defensive · · USD

133.21 USD

+0.00 (1.49%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 60

Trend & RS 88

Momentum 66

Fundamental (0%) 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 43

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	60.0	40%
Trend & RS	88.4	20%
Momentum	65.5	20%
Fundamental	55.6	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	42.7	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	133.21
Stop Loss	125.17 (6.0%)
Target 1 (1:1)	141.25 (+6.0%)
Target 2 (2:1)	149.29 (+12.1%)

ATR(14)	4.02 (3.0%)
Risk per Share	8.04
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	72.3	+0.89
Momentum	65.5	+0.62
Quality	35.8	-0.57
Composite	57.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	17.3	18.0	Inline
P/B Ratio	3.2	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	1.8%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

109.07

Market Price

133.21

Upside

-18.1%

Margin of Safety	-22.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,116,510,365
Terminal Value PV	17,946,344,860
Total Enterprise Value	24,062,855,225

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,358,999,481
Growth Rate (5yr)	5.2%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

43.66%

Full Kelly

21.83%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

65.22

RSI(14)

2.3745

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+24.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 27d since high
Sector Outperformance	+26.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	65.22	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.3745	BULLISH
Ma Cross	122.74 / 125.21	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.67x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	158.23
Bollinger Upper	132.73
SMA(200)	125.21
SMA(50)	122.74
SMA(20)	124.37
Current Price	133.21
Bollinger Lower	116.01
52-Week Low	95.11
ATR(14)	4.02

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Sign of Strength

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 3.5 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.64x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.52x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	127.28	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	125.82	Base line
Senkou A	126.55	Leading span A
Senkou B	123.44	Leading span B
Cloud	123.44 – 126.55	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	133.21	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	127.05	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH