The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
EL · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
58
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
91
Momentum
88
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
59
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 90.7 | 10% |
| Momentum | 87.9 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 58.8 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 107.65 |
| Stop Loss | 98.81 (8.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 116.49 (+8.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 125.33 (+16.4%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.42 (4.1%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.84 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 1.8 | -1.93 | |
| Momentum | 87.9 | +1.52 | |
| Quality | 28.3 | -0.87 | |
| Composite | 39.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 107.7 | 18.0 | +498% above |
| P/B Ratio | 9.7 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
15.09
vs
Market Price
107.65
Upside
-86.0%
| Margin of Safety | -613.2% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,360,116,603 |
| Terminal Value PV | 4,108,610,574 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 5,468,727,177 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 289,864,389 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 6.7% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.31%
Full Kelly
19.16%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 58/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
56.25
RSI(14)
2.8458
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
76
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+27.2% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +13.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 56.25 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 2.8458 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 100.63 / 90.98 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.22x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 121.64 |
| Bollinger Upper | 113.27 |
| SMA(200) | 90.98 |
| SMA(50) | 100.63 |
| SMA(20) | 105.87 |
| Current Price | 107.65 |
| Bollinger Lower | 98.47 |
| 52-Week Low | 66.22 |
| ATR(14) | 4.42 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
38%
Selling Climax
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 2.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 2.35x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Stopping Volume | 2.25x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.16x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.24x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.22x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 109.18 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 101.97 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 105.57 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 101.97 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 101.97 – 105.57 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 107.65 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 90.19 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 98.47 – 113.27 | KC: 99.29 – 112.46
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 4 | |
| Regular Bearish | RSI | 7 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 88.99
Anchor: 2026-04-02 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+21.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/EL
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 39.00B |
| P/E (TTM) | 107.65 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 9.66 |
| EPS | 1.00 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.7% |
| Profit Margin | 2.4% |
| ROE | 9.3% |
| Debt/Equity | 227.84 |
| Current Ratio | 1.25 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.23 |
Trading Data
107.65
Open
107.65
Day High
107.65
Day Low
4.57M
Volume (1.3x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)