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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

EL · Consumer Defensive · · USD
103.86 USD
+0.00 (2.97%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

71
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 75
Momentum 81
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 57
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 74.6 30%
Momentum 80.6 15%
Fundamental 55.6 10%
Macro 64.4 20%
Liquidity 56.6 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 103.86
Stop Loss 97.10 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 110.62 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 117.38 (+13.0%)
ATR(14) 3.38 (3.2%)
Risk per Share 6.76
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.7 -1.97
Momentum 80.6 +1.23
Quality 24.2 -1.03
Composite 35.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 207.7 18.0 +1054% above
P/B Ratio 9.9 2.5 Above
Dividend Yield 1.4% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
7.42
vs
Market Price
103.86
Upside
-92.9%
Margin of Safety -1299.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)671,568,479
Terminal Value PV2,013,126,882
Total Enterprise Value2,684,695,361

Assumptions

Base FCF144,719,418
Growth Rate (5yr)6.3%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
46.16%
Full Kelly
23.08%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 71/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
67.33
RSI(14)
4.5945
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

61
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+20.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High Near 3-month high 6d since high
Sector Outperformance +22.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 67.33 NEUTRAL
Macd 4.5945 BULLISH
Ma Cross 88.23 / 91.6 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 1.18x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High121.64
Bollinger Upper112.64
SMA(200)91.6
SMA(50)88.23
SMA(20)96.39
Current Price103.86
Bollinger Lower80.13
52-Week Low66.22
ATR(14)3.38

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence
50%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 1.03x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.73x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.87x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 0.53x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 1.18x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 103.38 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 95.43 Base line
Senkou A 99.41 Leading span A
Senkou B 92.29 Leading span B
Cloud 92.29 – 99.41 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 103.86 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 83.62 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 80.13 – 112.64  |  KC: 91.09 – 101.68

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Hidden Bullish RSI 14

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 84.38 Anchor: 2026-04-02 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +23.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/EL

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap37.58B
P/E (TTM)207.72
Forward P/EN/A
P/B9.87
EPS0.50

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth6.3%
Profit Margin1.2%
ROE4.7%
Debt/Equity242.93
Current Ratio1.22
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.27

Trading Data

103.86
Open
103.86
Day High
103.86
Day Low
3.88M
Volume (1.2x avg)

Recent News (8)

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Estee Lauder, e.l.f. Beauty, Coty and Helen of Troy
Zacks · 2026-09-04
4 Cosmetics Stocks Showing Strength Amid Industry Headwinds
Zacks · 2026-09-03
Justin Boxford Named Global President of Lauder’s Luxury Beauty Brands Among Other Appointments
WWD · 2026-09-03
Layoff plans trended down in August, and fewer companies are blaming AI
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-03
Estée Lauder (EL) Stock Looks Undervalued On Cash Flow Yet Fair On Sales
Simply Wall St. · 2026-09-01
Goldman Sachs refreshes conviction lists on both sides of the Atlantic
Investing.com · 2026-09-01
Can Blockbuster Fragrances Make a Comeback?
WWD · 2026-09-01
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc's Dividend Analysis
GuruFocus.com · 2026-08-31

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —