Fortinet, Inc.

FTNT · Technology · · USD

158.26 USD

0.00 (-3.34%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 19:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 99

Momentum 91

Fundamental 83

Macro 69

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	99.2	10%
Momentum	91.3	5%
Fundamental	83.3	40%
Macro	68.7	15%
Liquidity	40.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	158.13
Stop Loss	144.99 (8.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	171.27 (+8.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	184.41 (+16.6%)

ATR(14)	6.57 (4.2%)
Risk per Share	13.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	91.3	+1.65
Quality	64.5	+0.58
Composite	51.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 124.01 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	58.6	28.0	+109% above
P/B Ratio	117.4	6.0	Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

67.05

Market Price

158.26

Upside

-57.6%

Margin of Safety	-136.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	10,248,986,446
Terminal Value PV	38,875,716,584
Total Enterprise Value	49,124,703,030

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,518,047,466
Growth Rate (5yr)	20.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

47.93%

Full Kelly

23.97%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 74/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

60.63

RSI(14)

7.2533

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+85.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (1d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+78.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	60.63	NEUTRAL
Macd	7.2533	BEARISH
Ma Cross	134.29 / 95.1	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.21x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	165.28
Bollinger Upper	164.73
SMA(200)	95.1
SMA(50)	134.29
SMA(20)	152.03
Current Price	158.26
Bollinger Lower	139.33
52-Week Low	70.12
ATR(14)	6.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	158.00	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	149.16	Base line
Senkou A	153.58	Leading span A
Senkou B	123.86	Leading span B
Cloud	123.86 – 153.58	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	158.13	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	146.48	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH