Fortinet, Inc.

FTNT · Technology · · USD

158.02 USD

0.00 (-3.49%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 99

Momentum 91

Fundamental 67

Macro 65

Liquidity 41

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	99.2	30%
Momentum	91.4	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	40.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	158.47
Stop Loss	145.32 (8.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	171.60 (+8.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	184.75 (+16.6%)

ATR(14)	6.57 (4.2%)
Risk per Share	13.14
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	0.0	-2.00
Momentum	91.4	+1.65
Quality	64.5	+0.58
Composite	52.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	58.5	28.0	+109% above
P/B Ratio	117.2	6.0	Above

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

69.90

Market Price

158.02

Upside

-55.8%

Margin of Safety	-126.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	10,684,272,081
Terminal Value PV	40,526,810,676
Total Enterprise Value	51,211,082,757

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,582,520,598
Growth Rate (5yr)	20.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

51.62%

Full Kelly

25.81%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

61.1

RSI(14)

7.2836

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+85.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (1d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+80.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	61.1	NEUTRAL
Macd	7.2836	BEARISH
Ma Cross	134.29 / 95.1	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.16x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	165.28
Bollinger Upper	164.78
SMA(200)	95.1
SMA(50)	134.29
SMA(20)	152.05
Current Price	158.02
Bollinger Lower	139.31
52-Week Low	70.12
ATR(14)	6.57

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.16x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	158.00	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	149.16	Base line
Senkou A	153.58	Leading span A
Senkou B	123.86	Leading span B
Cloud	123.86 – 153.58	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	158.51	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	146.48	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH