Genuine Parts Company
GPC · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)
59
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
49
Momentum
65
Fundamental (0%)
61
Macro
24
Liquidity
53
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 40% |
| Trend & RS | 49.3 | 20% |
| Momentum | 64.9 | 20% |
| Fundamental | 61.4 | 0% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 53.0 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 124.44 |
| Stop Loss | 116.68 (6.2%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 132.20 (+6.2%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 139.96 (+12.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.88 (3.1%) |
| Risk per Share | 7.76 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 44.4 | -0.22 | |
| Momentum | 64.9 | +0.59 | |
| Quality | 20.7 | -1.17 | |
| Composite | 43.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.36
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 478.6 | 18.0 | +2559% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.7 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
3.53
vs
Market Price
124.44
Upside
-97.2%
| Margin of Safety | -3426.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 125,513,512 |
| Terminal Value PV | 361,021,417 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 486,534,929 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 28,675,854 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 4.2% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
38.85%
Full Kelly
19.42%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 59/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.5%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
46.57
RSI(14)
-1.3967
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
23
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-2.6% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (50d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -8.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 46.57 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.3967 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 129.03 / 118.3 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.13x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 151.57 |
| Bollinger Upper | 134.44 |
| SMA(200) | 118.3 |
| SMA(50) | 129.03 |
| SMA(20) | 126.27 |
| Current Price | 124.44 |
| Bollinger Lower | 118.09 |
| 52-Week Low | 90.78 |
| ATR(14) | 3.88 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.98x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.93x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.87x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 125.01 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 127.84 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 126.43 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 129.49 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 126.43 – 129.49 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 124.44 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 125.12 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 118.09 – 134.44 | KC: 120.33 – 132.2
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 26 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 120.15
Anchor: 2026-05-20 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+3.6%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/GPC
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 17.16B |
| P/E (TTM) | 478.62 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.69 |
| EPS | 0.26 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 4.2% |
| Profit Margin | 0.1% |
| ROE | 0.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 146.47 |
| Current Ratio | 1.22 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.66 |
Trading Data
124.44
Open
124.44
Day High
124.44
Day Low
1.25M
Volume (1.2x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)