Genuine Parts Company

GPC · Consumer Cyclical · · USD

138.08 USD

+0.00 (1.12%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:33 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 89

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 36

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	93.9	10%
Momentum	88.9	5%
Fundamental	55.6	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	35.9	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	138.08
Stop Loss	131.70 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	144.46 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	150.84 (+9.2%)

ATR(14)	3.19 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	6.38
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	30.5	-0.78
Momentum	88.9	+1.56
Quality	20.2	-1.19
Composite	46.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	552.3	18.0	+2968% above
P/B Ratio	4.2	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

3.66

Market Price

138.08

Upside

-97.3%

Margin of Safety	-3669.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	126,886,044
Terminal Value PV	378,159,381
Total Enterprise Value	505,045,425

Assumptions

Base FCF	27,571,953
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.71%

Full Kelly

19.85%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

62.8

RSI(14)

2.7203

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+37.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 7d since high
Sector Outperformance	+37.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	62.8	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.7203	BEARISH
Ma Cross	128.31 / 117.59	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.67x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	151.57
Bollinger Upper	138.7
SMA(200)	117.59
SMA(50)	128.31
SMA(20)	134.53
Current Price	138.08
Bollinger Lower	130.37
52-Week Low	90.78
ATR(14)	3.19

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.14x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.67x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	136.03	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	130.59	Base line
Senkou A	133.31	Leading span A
Senkou B	122.72	Leading span B
Cloud	122.72 – 133.31	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	138.08	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	123.41	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH