Johnson Controls International plc

JCI · Industrials · · USD

144.94 USD

+0.00 (1.91%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 77

Momentum 55

Fundamental 83

Macro 64

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	76.9	30%
Momentum	55.4	15%
Fundamental	83.3	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	50.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	144.94
Stop Loss	137.56 (5.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	152.32 (+5.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	159.70 (+10.2%)

ATR(14)	3.69 (2.5%)
Risk per Share	7.38
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	28.1	-0.87
Momentum	55.4	+0.21
Quality	37.2	-0.51
Composite	40.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 6.61 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	40.8	18.0	+127% above
P/B Ratio	6.5	3.0	Above
Dividend Yield	1.1%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

59.72

Market Price

144.94

Upside

-58.8%

Margin of Safety	-142.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,672,811,841
Terminal Value PV	27,503,279,103
Total Enterprise Value	36,176,090,944

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,720,305,775
Growth Rate (5yr)	9.3%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

45.8%

Full Kelly

22.9%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

51.35

RSI(14)

-1.4661

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-3.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Industrials)
RS New High	No (21d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+1.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	51.35	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.4661	BEARISH
Ma Cross	144.57 / 134.31	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	1.1x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	157.06
Bollinger Upper	156.66
SMA(200)	134.31
SMA(50)	144.57
SMA(20)	145.65
Current Price	144.94
Bollinger Lower	134.63
52-Week Low	104.49
ATR(14)	3.69

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Accumulation)

Acc: 2.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	1.1x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	141.47	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	147.30	Base line
Senkou A	144.39	Leading span A
Senkou B	146.64	Leading span B
Cloud	144.39 – 146.64	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	144.94	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	146.66	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	NEUTRAL