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Johnson Controls International plc

JCI · Industrials · · USD
141.78 USD
+0.00 (1.62%)
● Updated 2026-05-12 11:50 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

70
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 78
Momentum 66
Fundamental 67
Macro 65
Liquidity 46
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 78.5 30%
Momentum 66.0 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 65.1 20%
Liquidity 46.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 141.78
Stop Loss 133.70 (5.7%)
Target 1 (1:1) 149.86 (+5.7%)
Target 2 (2:1) 157.94 (+11.4%)
ATR(14) 4.04 (2.9%)
Risk per Share 8.08
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 26.5 -0.94
Momentum 66.0 +0.64
Quality 37.0 -0.52
Composite 43.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 43.2 18.0 +140% above
P/B Ratio 6.4 3.0 Above
Dividend Yield 1.1% 2.0% Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
52.72
vs
Market Price
141.78
Upside
-62.8%
Margin of Safety -169.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)7,830,181,090
Terminal Value PV24,332,698,188
Total Enterprise Value32,162,879,278

Assumptions

Base FCF1,600,943,283
Growth Rate (5yr)8.2%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
45.98%
Full Kelly
22.99%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
52.98
RSI(14)
1.2976
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

83
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↓ FALLING (-4.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High No (49d since high)
Sector Outperformance +4.3% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 52.98 NEUTRAL
Macd 1.2976 BEARISH
Ma Cross 137.5 / 120.6 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.86x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High147.32
Bollinger Upper146.4
SMA(200)120.6
SMA(50)137.5
SMA(20)141.61
Current Price141.78
Bollinger Lower136.82
52-Week Low95.31
ATR(14)4.04

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION C Confidence
78%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 1.0  |  Dist: 3.5  |  Markup: 0.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-05-05 Normal 1.27x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06 Stopping Volume 2.17x High volume, wide spread, but closes mid — absorption of supply
2026-05-07 Normal 1.84x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08 Normal 0.8x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11 Normal 0.86x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 142.36 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 139.51 Base line
Senkou A 140.94 Leading span A
Senkou B 136.62 Leading span B
Cloud 136.62 – 140.94 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 141.78 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 133.75 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE ON 5 bars Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 136.82 – 146.4  |  KC: 135.84 – 147.38

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish MACD 8

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 116.11 Anchor: 2025-05-09 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +22.1%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/JCI

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap86.50B
P/E (TTM)43.23
Forward P/EN/A
P/B6.40
EPS3.28

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth8.2%
Profit Margin14.5%
ROE13.4%
Debt/Equity70.32
Current Ratio1.04
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.39

Trading Data

141.78
Open
141.78
Day High
141.78
Day Low
2.25M
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Johnson Controls International (JCI) Price Target Increased to $170 from $160 by UBS
Insider Monkey · 2026-05-12
A Look At Johnson Controls International (JCI) Valuation After Mixed Recent Share Price Performance
Simply Wall St. · 2026-05-11
Johnson Controls International Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat · 2026-05-11
Data center cooling drives Johnson Controls’ Q2 sales up 8%
Facilities Dive · 2026-05-08
Johnson Controls Q2 Beat, Raise Led by Data Center Order Growth, RBC Says
MT Newswires · 2026-05-07
Johnson Controls (JCI) Q2 2026 Earnings Transcript
Motley Fool · 2026-05-06
Johnson Controls International plc Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Moby · 2026-05-06
AI Data Centers Need to Stay Cool. These Stocks Could Benefit.
Barrons.com · 2026-05-06

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —