JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPM · Financial Services · · USD

304.93 USD

+0.00 (1.64%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 22:49 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 65

Momentum 52

Fundamental 34

Macro 61

Liquidity 57

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	65.1	30%
Momentum	51.7	15%
Fundamental	34.3	10%
Macro	60.8	20%
Liquidity	57.4	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	305.06
Stop Loss	291.88 (4.3%)
Target 1 (1:1)	318.24 (+4.3%)
Target 2 (2:1)	331.42 (+8.6%)

ATR(14)	6.59 (2.2%)
Risk per Share	13.18
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	79.5	+1.18
Momentum	51.7	+0.07
Quality	70.4	+0.82
Composite	67.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 0.65 — Distress Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.6	18.0	-19% below
P/B Ratio	2.4	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	2.0%	2.0%	Avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

403.68

Market Price

304.93

Upside

+32.4%

Margin of Safety	+24.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	247,640,790,302
Terminal Value PV	834,014,675,431
Total Enterprise Value	1,081,655,465,733

Assumptions

Base FCF	44,758,558,726
Growth Rate (5yr)	12.7%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

36.54%

Full Kelly

18.27%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 56/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.3%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

48.73

RSI(14)

0.7575

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-10.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	INLINE (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (21d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-2.7% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	48.73	NEUTRAL
Macd	0.7575	BEARISH
Ma Cross	299.5 / 302.85	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.81x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	337.25
Bollinger Upper	318.08
SMA(200)	302.85
SMA(50)	299.5
SMA(20)	309.63
Current Price	304.93
Bollinger Lower	301.18
52-Week Low	256.00
ATR(14)	6.59

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-06	Normal	1.08x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Spring	0.81x	Price broke below support then recovered on low volume — potential reversal

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	305.93	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	306.47	Base line
Senkou A	306.20	Leading span A
Senkou B	298.96	Leading span B
Cloud	298.96 – 306.20	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	305.06	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	297.40	Bullish
Alignment Score	2/4	NEUTRAL