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Eli Lilly and Company

LLY · Healthcare · · USD
1195.00 USD
0.00 (-1.80%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 17:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

78
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 98
Momentum 79
Fundamental 56
Macro 71
Liquidity 50
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 20%
Trend & RS 98.0 30%
Momentum 78.7 15%
Fundamental 55.6 10%
Macro 71.2 20%
Liquidity 50.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 1192.00
Stop Loss 1114.58 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 1269.42 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 1346.84 (+13.0%)
ATR(14) 38.71 (3.2%)
Risk per Share 77.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 8.3 -1.67
Momentum 78.7 +1.15
Quality 72.8 +0.91
Composite 53.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 42.5 22.0 +93% above
P/B Ratio 34.2 4.0 Above
Dividend Yield 57.0% 1.5% Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
876.14
vs
Market Price
1195.00
Upside
-26.7%
Margin of Safety -36.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)154,072,328,350
Terminal Value PV627,217,027,692
Total Enterprise Value781,289,356,042

Assumptions

Base FCF20,053,480,313
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
50.67%
Full Kelly
25.34%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
57.89
RSI(14)
36.7073
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

94
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+14.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High No (8d since high)
Sector Outperformance +21.7% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 57.89 NEUTRAL
Macd 36.7073 BEARISH
Ma Cross 1086.42 / 993.97 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.14x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1249.45
Bollinger Upper1262.93
SMA(200)993.97
SMA(50)1086.42
SMA(20)1165.7
Current Price1195.00
Bollinger Lower1068.47
52-Week Low623.78
ATR(14)38.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence
50%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.77x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.96x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.85x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.68x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Normal 0.14x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1211.69 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1151.48 Base line
Senkou A 1181.59 Leading span A
Senkou B 1049.25 Leading span B
Cloud 1049.25 – 1181.59 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 1192.00 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 1078.78 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 1068.47 – 1262.93  |  KC: 1108.08 – 1223.32

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 4
Hidden Bullish RSI 15
Regular Bearish RSI 20

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 937.43 Anchor: 2025-08-08 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +27.2%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/LLY

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap1065.63B
P/E (TTM)42.51
Forward P/EN/A
P/B34.22
EPS28.11

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth55.5%
Profit Margin35.0%
ROE1.1%
Debt/Equity139.01
Current Ratio1.50
Dividend Yield57.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.51

Trading Data

1195.00
Open
1195.00
Day High
1195.00
Day Low
398.3K
Volume (0.1x avg)

Recent News (8)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —