Eli Lilly and Company
LLY · Healthcare · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
77
/ 100
Technical
100
Trend & RS
95
Momentum
93
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
86
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 100.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 94.7 | 30% |
| Momentum | 92.6 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 86.0 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 1364.73 |
| Stop Loss | 1269.53 (7.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 1459.93 (+7.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 1555.13 (+13.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 47.60 (3.5%) |
| Risk per Share | 95.20 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 6.3 | -1.75 | |
| Momentum | 84.2 | +1.37 | |
| Quality | 69.7 | +0.79 | |
| Composite | 53.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.3 | 22.0 | +101% above |
| P/B Ratio | 30.2 | 4.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 51.0% | 1.5% | Above avg |
Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
960.29
vs
Market Price
1364.73
Upside
-29.6%
| Margin of Safety | -42.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 168,682,483,873 |
| Terminal Value PV | 686,693,887,810 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 855,376,371,683 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 21,955,083,730 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
49.66%
Full Kelly
24.83%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 77/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.6%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
0
Bearish Signals
63.42
RSI(14)
56.5472
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING
86
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+20.2% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare) |
| RS New High | Near 3-month high 3d since high |
| Sector Outperformance | +2.3% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING:
Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 63.42 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 56.5472 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 1210.69 / 1096.44 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.73x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 1453.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 1455.92 |
| SMA(200) | 1096.44 |
| SMA(50) | 1210.69 |
| SMA(20) | 1293.22 |
| Current Price | 1364.73 |
| Bollinger Lower | 1130.52 |
| 52-Week Low | 850.51 |
| ATR(14) | 47.6 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
DISTRIBUTION C
Confidence
56%
Upthrust (potential)
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 2.5 |
Markup: 2.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.87x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.33x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.01x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.29x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.73x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 1356.67 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 1292.11 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 1324.39 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 1283.14 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 1283.14 – 1324.39 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 1364.73 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 1149.85 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 1130.52 – 1455.92 | KC: 1223.05 – 1363.39
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 1154.34
Anchor: 2026-04-29 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+18.2%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 1215.63B |
| P/E (TTM) | 44.30 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 30.20 |
| EPS | 30.81 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 38.6% |
| Profit Margin | 31.9% |
| ROE | 86.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 122.92 |
| Current Ratio | 1.39 |
| Dividend Yield | 51.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.39 |
Trading Data
1364.73
Open
1364.73
Day High
1364.73
Day Low
4.76M
Volume (1.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)