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Eli Lilly and Company

LLY · Healthcare · · USD
1186.45 USD
0.00 (-2.51%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 18:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

78
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 98
Momentum 78
Fundamental (0%) 56
Macro 65
Liquidity 50
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 40%
Trend & RS 98.0 20%
Momentum 78.3 20%
Fundamental 55.6 0%
Macro 65.2 15%
Liquidity 50.0 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 1187.82
Stop Loss 1110.40 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 1265.24 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 1342.66 (+13.0%)
ATR(14) 38.71 (3.3%)
Risk per Share 77.42
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 8.7 -1.65
Momentum 78.3 +1.13
Quality 72.8 +0.91
Composite 53.3

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 42.2 22.0 +92% above
P/B Ratio 34.0 4.0 Above
Dividend Yield 57.0% 1.5% Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
876.14
vs
Market Price
1186.45
Upside
-26.2%
Margin of Safety -35.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)154,072,318,247
Terminal Value PV627,216,986,563
Total Enterprise Value781,289,304,810

Assumptions

Base FCF20,053,478,998
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
50.11%
Full Kelly
25.06%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 78/100. Estimated win rate 63%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
57.0
RSI(14)
36.3736
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

94
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+13.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High No (8d since high)
Sector Outperformance +19.1% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 57.0 NEUTRAL
Macd 36.3736 BEARISH
Ma Cross 1086.34 / 993.94 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.19x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High1249.45
Bollinger Upper1262.5
SMA(200)993.94
SMA(50)1086.34
SMA(20)1165.49
Current Price1186.45
Bollinger Lower1068.49
52-Week Low623.78
ATR(14)38.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence
50%
Buying Climax
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 2.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.77x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.96x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 0.85x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.68x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Normal 0.19x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1211.69 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1151.48 Base line
Senkou A 1181.59 Leading span A
Senkou B 1049.25 Leading span B
Cloud 1049.25 – 1181.59 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 1187.82 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 1078.78 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 1068.49 – 1262.5  |  KC: 1107.87 – 1223.11

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 4
Hidden Bullish RSI 15
Regular Bearish RSI 20

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 937.47 Anchor: 2025-08-08 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +26.7%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

EXHAUSTION Trend exhaustion (3 doji candles) Full data via /api/advanced/LLY

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap1058.01B
P/E (TTM)42.21
Forward P/EN/A
P/B33.98
EPS28.11

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth55.5%
Profit Margin35.0%
ROE1.1%
Debt/Equity139.01
Current Ratio1.50
Dividend Yield57.0%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.51

Trading Data

1186.45
Open
1186.45
Day High
1186.45
Day Low
528.4K
Volume (0.2x avg)

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Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —