Eli Lilly and Company

LLY · Healthcare · · USD

1149.36 USD

0.00 (-0.88%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 21:04 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 61

Momentum 63

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 60

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	10%
Trend & RS	60.6	10%
Momentum	62.7	5%
Fundamental	77.8	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	60.5	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	1149.36
Stop Loss	1078.56 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	1220.16 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	1290.96 (+12.3%)

ATR(14)	35.40 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	70.80
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	13.6	-1.46
Momentum	62.7	+0.51
Quality	70.5	+0.82
Composite	48.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 13.47 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	38.6	22.0	+76% above
P/B Ratio	30.2	4.0	Above
Dividend Yield	60.0%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

927.88

Market Price

1149.36

Upside

-19.3%

Margin of Safety	-23.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	163,170,875,570
Terminal Value PV	664,256,538,972
Total Enterprise Value	827,427,414,542

Assumptions

Base FCF	21,237,713,325
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

43.97%

Full Kelly

21.99%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 67/100. Estimated win rate 60%, avg win 9.0%, avg loss 3.7%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

41.43

RSI(14)

-7.2773

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-3.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (12d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	41.43	NEUTRAL
Macd	-7.2773	BEARISH
Ma Cross	1190.35 / 1060.38	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.89x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	1292.65
Bollinger Upper	1279.22
SMA(200)	1060.38
SMA(50)	1190.35
SMA(20)	1202.25
Current Price	1149.36
Bollinger Lower	1125.27
52-Week Low	712.05
ATR(14)	35.4

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.22x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.01x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.02x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	1201.12	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	1200.11	Base line
Senkou A	1200.61	Leading span A
Senkou B	1196.03	Leading span B
Cloud	1196.03 – 1200.61	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	1149.36	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	1147.20	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL