Eli Lilly and Company

LLY · Healthcare · · USD

1186.17 USD

0.00 (-2.53%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 98

Momentum 78

Fundamental 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	98.0	30%
Momentum	78.1	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	65.2	20%
Liquidity	50.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	1185.52
Stop Loss	1108.10 (6.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	1262.93 (+6.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	1340.36 (+13.1%)

ATR(14)	38.71 (3.3%)
Risk per Share	77.42
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	5.8	-1.77
Momentum	78.1	+1.12
Quality	72.8	+0.91
Composite	52.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 16.70 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	42.2	22.0	+92% above
P/B Ratio	34.0	4.0	Above
Dividend Yield	57.0%	1.5%	Above avg

Comparing against Healthcare median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

876.14

Market Price

1186.17

Upside

-26.1%

Margin of Safety	-35.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	154,072,331,619
Terminal Value PV	627,217,040,995
Total Enterprise Value	781,289,372,614

Assumptions

Base FCF	20,053,480,738
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

51.18%

Full Kelly

25.59%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 79/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

56.52

RSI(14)

36.1899

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+13.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Healthcare)
RS New High	No (8d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+18.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	56.52	NEUTRAL
Macd	36.1899	BEARISH
Ma Cross	1086.29 / 993.93	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.22x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	1249.45
Bollinger Upper	1262.28
SMA(200)	993.93
SMA(50)	1086.29
SMA(20)	1165.38
Current Price	1186.17
Bollinger Lower	1068.48
52-Week Low	623.78
ATR(14)	38.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION A Confidence

50%

Buying Climax

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.68x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.22x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	1211.69	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	1151.48	Base line
Senkou A	1181.59	Leading span A
Senkou B	1049.25	Leading span B
Cloud	1049.25 – 1181.59	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	1185.52	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	1078.78	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH