LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LYB · Basic Materials · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
37
/ 100
Technical
0
Trend & RS
57
Momentum
41
Fundamental
67
Macro
22
Liquidity
60
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 0.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 56.8 | 30% |
| Momentum | 40.9 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 66.7 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 59.7 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 61.63 |
| Stop Loss | 56.95 (7.6%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 66.31 (+7.6%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 70.99 (+15.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 2.34 (3.8%) |
| Risk per Share | 4.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 82.3 | +1.29 | |
| Momentum | 40.9 | -0.36 | |
| Quality | 36.3 | -0.55 | |
| Composite | 53.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Undervalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.9 | 18.0 | -17% below |
| P/B Ratio | 1.8 | 2.5 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Basic Materials median multiples.
Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
71.52
vs
Market Price
61.63
Upside
+16.0%
| Margin of Safety | +13.8% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 5,488,747,697 |
| Terminal Value PV | 17,628,279,447 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 23,117,027,144 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,067,993,185 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 10.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
22.5%
Full Kelly
11.25%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 37/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
0
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
43.32
RSI(14)
0.8908
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
91
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+9.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Basic Materials) |
| RS New High | No (4d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +6.2% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 43.32 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 0.8908 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 62.73 / 63.24 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.46x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 83.94 |
| Bollinger Upper | 69.72 |
| SMA(200) | 63.24 |
| SMA(50) | 62.73 |
| SMA(20) | 64.18 |
| Current Price | 61.63 |
| Bollinger Lower | 58.63 |
| 52-Week Low | 41.58 |
| ATR(14) | 2.34 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
ACCUMULATION E
Confidence
50%
Acc: 1.0 |
Dist: 1.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.25x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.1x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.02x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 2.0x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.46x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 65.06 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 62.34 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 63.70 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 62.34 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 62.34 – 63.70 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 61.63 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 57.78 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 3/4 | NEUTRAL |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 58.63 – 69.72 | KC: 60.92 – 67.44
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 59.82
Anchor: 2025-11-10 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+3.0%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/LYB
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 19.92B |
| P/E (TTM) | 14.92 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.77 |
| EPS | 4.13 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 10.0% |
| Profit Margin | 4.1% |
| ROE | 12.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 120.55 |
| Current Ratio | 1.78 |
| Dividend Yield | 4.5% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.32 |
Trading Data
61.63
Open
61.63
Day High
61.63
Day Low
5.43M
Volume (1.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)